Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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FXUS63 KGRR 221743
AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
143 PM EDT Tue May 22 2018

LATEST UPDATE...
Aviation

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 328 AM EDT Tue May 22 2018

Low pressure will pull away today with any remaining showers
ending during the afternoon. Fair weather will last through much
of the week with the next chance for rain late Friday into
Saturday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1026 AM EDT Tue May 22 2018

No much change needed to the forecast this morning. Fog is hanging
in at most sites with a light flow in place. There were a few
showers earlier that have moved out. We can not rule out another
shower popping up, especially across the SE as one last short wave
pushes through. The moisture is not very deep, so we do not expect
anything more than a light shower.

As the short wave moves through this afternoon, the clearing well
north and west of the area will gradually move in over the area
toward sunset.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 328 AM EDT Tue May 22 2018

Upper trough axis moves through today with isolated showers
possible through this morning, then ending this afternoon as
heights rise and surface ridging builds in. Morning fog lifts
and mixes out over Lake Michigan as lower dew points advect in.
Will have to monitor the coast for fog encroaching inland early
this morning.

Dry weather with moderating temperatures for the rest of the
period as sfc high is anchored over the central Great Lakes.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday)
Issued at 328 AM EDT Tue May 22 2018

Persistent south to southwest flow will result in very mild weather
late in the week through the holiday weekend. High temperatures will
reach the upper 70`s to middle 80`s daily.

A low pressure system moving into the northern Great Lakes region
will bring potential for a few showers and thunderstorms Friday
night through Saturday into Sunday. However precipitation will be
scattered and most of the holiday weekend will be dry and warm and
fairly humid.

Rather mild and fairly humid wx will continue on Memorial Day into
early next week. The tropical system over the Gulf Coast region this
weekend could potentially bring subtropical moisture up into our
region for the mid to latter portion of next week.

$$

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 144 PM EDT Tue May 22 2018

Ceilings are improving from IFR to MVFR, visibilities have for the
most part improved to VFR. I expect skies to totally clear by late
afternoon. Clear skies and light winds, after the soaking rain
last night then having generally cloudy skies today will lead to
widespread fog Wednesday morning. This will be more of a problem
near the lakes shore were air cooled by the cold surface water of
Lake Michigan advects into the slightly milder and nearly
saturated air just inland. This will result in MKG, AZO and BTL
having LIFR fog toward morning. GRR and LAN may have an issue too
but at this point I was less confident so I have MVFR fog there.
All of the fog should lift and skies should be clear by early
afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1026 AM EDT Tue May 22 2018

We have extended the Marine Dense Fog Advisory into this afternoon
based on the fog hanging in on the coastal webcams this morning.
Winds should turn around to the Northwest and increase some, which
should sweep out the moist conditions.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 1234 PM EDT Tue May 22 2018

A half inch to over an inch of rain fell yesterday into today.
This will lead to some rises on area rivers. However, only minor
flooding should occur. We should remain dry until the weekend. This
will allow rivers to recover a bit before rainfall returns.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
LM...Dense Fog Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for LMZ844>848.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NJJ
SYNOPSIS...Ostuno
SHORT TERM...Ostuno
LONG TERM...Laurens
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...NJJ



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