Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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FXUS63 KGRR 201904
AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
304 PM EDT Fri Apr 20 2018

LATEST UPDATE...
Synopsis/Short Term/Long Term/Marine/FireWeather

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 304 PM EDT Fri Apr 20 2018

Dry and mild weather will hold through early next week with high
pressure in control of the weather over the region. Temperatures
will gradually increase a couple/few degrees each day through next
Tuesday. Some areas will likely approach 70 degrees next Monday and
Tuesday.

Cooler weather will move back in for mid-late week next week. The
chance for rain will increase some by next Wednesday as a couple of
systems approach the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 304 PM EDT Fri Apr 20 2018

No significant weather expected in the short term. Upper ridge axis
to our west will slowly build toward the area, while high pressure
at the sfc moves overhead. These features will be reinforced as low
pressure at the sfc and aloft move south of the region. Some high
clouds will shroud the skies on Sat on the far nrn periphery of the
southern low. Very dry low levels will ensure that we stay dry.

The high clouds will push south again later in the weekend as the
srn low starts to approach the Atlantic, and the ridge is
reinforced.

The very dry air mass that is, and will stay in place, will allow
for a gradual increase in temperature as the potent late-April
sunshine works on the atmosphere with little temperature advection
through Sat. A slight advection of warmer air will occur on Sun to
help temps out a bit more.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 304 PM EDT Fri Apr 20 2018

Dry weather will persist into Tue before smaller chances of rain
will arrive for the mid-week time frame.

The upper low over the SE US eventually is allowed to lift NE some
as ridging moves out of the way. The low will try and spread some
moisture up into the area. However, a nrn stream trough dives SE and
pushes it away from the area before the to features eventually
phase. The trend over the past couple of days has been for the
phasing to occur east of the area.

This scenario will limit how much pcpn we will get. That is because
the srn low will shunt Gulf moisture away from the area, and limit
the amount of moisture the nrn stream has available to work with.
There is some difference as to how quick the moisture moves out,
with the Euro a little quicker, and the GFS a little slower. What is
a given though is cooler air will move in for mid-week.

Another nrn stream trough will dive toward the area late next week.
This will bring another chance of rain toward next Friday, along
with another shot of cooler air.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 128 PM EDT Fri Apr 20 2018

No real impacts to aviation interests through 18z Sat and beyond.
Some thin high clouds are starting to move in, and they will lower
to around 15k ft on Sat. Cumulus development is not expected with
very dry air expected to hold in the lower levels. This dry air will
also keep any fog from forming overnight. Winds will generally be
from the NNW today, except with a lake breeze at the lakeshore.
Winds will go light tonight, and remain under 5 knots through the
remainder of the fcst period.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 304 PM EDT Fri Apr 20 2018

No marine headlines expected through early next week. The pressure
gradient will remain weak through the period. Lake breezes can be
expected for each afternoon and evening period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 304 PM EDT Fri Apr 20 2018

Dry and increasingly warmer temperatures will allow fire danger to
become more elevated through time, especially as the moist soil
dries out a bit. One thing we do not expect is windy conditions
through early next week. This will keep fire danger somewhat limited.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 124 PM EDT Fri Apr 20 2018

Lowland flooding near riverbanks will be ongoing over the next
several days as water from last weekend`s mixed precipitation event
moves through the river basins. Since no heavy rain events are
anticipated through at least early next week, rivers will gradually
crest then subside with only nuisance level impacts.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...NJJ
AVIATION...NJJ
FIRE WEATHER...NJJ
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...NJJ



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