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000
FXUS63 KGRR 251132
AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
732 AM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cold Temperatures continue into Friday

- Periods of Showers and Thunderstorms Friday Night through Monday

- Well Above Normal Temperatures This Weekend into Next Week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 330 AM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

- Cold Temperatures continue into Friday

Freeze warning continues this morning. Temperatures have dropped
to around freezing already with dewpoints in the mid to upper
20s. Expect as winds calm towards sunrise, Minimum temperatures
will drop.
 The upper level ridge will settle over the region this morning
with dry air overhead. Expect sunny skies through Thursday into
Friday. With mostly clear skies another round of freezing
temperatures will be possible tonight into Friday morning.
 While there is less of a signal Temperatures could drop to around
30 east of US 131. However, there are several caveats. One is that
easterly winds could bring moist flow that could bring dewpoints
to at to above freezing. Also, any winds could preclude any
frost/freeze. Dayshift will have to make final determination but
it remains possible.
 Skies will overspread the region Friday morning with Temperatures
rebounding daytime Friday into the  mid to upper 60s.


- Periods of Showers and Thunderstorms Friday Night through Monday

Periods of showers and storms are expected beginning Friday night
and lasting into Monday. A deep and persistent southwest flow will
be in place across the Great Lakes. This regime will supply deep
moisture to the region with a source off the Gulf of Mexico. A
blocking area of high pressure off the middle Atlantic and Southeast
U.S. coast will keep the moisture feed in place for our region.
Surface dew points will push into the 60s and precipitable water
values will be between 1.00 and 1.50 inches. Rainfall amounts over
multiple days will begin to add up. Totals by Tuesday morning will
likely range from around 1.50 inches towards Ludington to 0.50
towards Jackson.

An oscillating boundary will be near our area much of the time
initially moving in as a warm front Friday night. We will be
positioned in the warm sector on Saturday. The boundary stalls near
Central Michigan Saturday night before moving north again on Sunday.
A cold front will finally move through Monday evening. Best chances
for storms will likely occur on Saturday when 1000 to 2000 j/kg
of MUCAPE is forecast. Sunday is another time frame that will need
to be watched as MUCAPE values again exceed 1000 j/kg with the
warm front surging north.

There are not many forecast periods that are dry once we get to
Friday night...April showers.

- Well Above Normal Temperatures This Weekend into Next Week

850mb temperatures are in the teens C for the most part from Friday
night through Tuesday. These are essentially summer time values and
the resultant surface temperatures are warm as well. ECMWF and GFS
MOS guidance show highs in the 70s each day from Saturday through
Tuesday. For reference today`s high in Grand Rapids is 62. We will
be well into the 70s Saturday through Tuesday, so we will at least
be 10-20 degrees above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 734 AM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

VFR weather is expected the next 24 hours. Little in the way of
cloud cover is expected. The only clouds will be some cirrus
moving through today with bases at or above 20,000 feet. Winds
will be light out of the east and northeast for the most part. The
exception will be Muskegon where a lake breeze from the southwest
will develop this afternoon. All winds are expected to remain
below 10 knots.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 330 AM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Winds have slackened with good weather continuing into Friday
Southwest winds will increase on Friday afternoon and a SCA may be
needed for Friday night and Saturday. We have lowered NBM winds
for Saturday since we expect the stronger winds to remain aloft in
a warm advection pattern, so we do not expect to reach gales at
this time.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024

RECORD LOWS FOR APRIL 25TH

Grand Rapids... 22 in 1967
Lansing... 17 in 1909
Muskegon... 24 in 1967
Kalamazoo... 22 in 1919
Battle Creek... 23 in 1967

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Freeze Warning until 8 AM EDT this morning for MIZ043>046-
     050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Duke/Ceru
AVIATION...Duke
MARINE...Ceru
CLIMATE...Ostuno