Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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FXUS63 KGRR 201930

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
330 PM EDT Tue Mar 20 2018

Synopsis/Short Term/Long Term/Marine

Issued at 330 PM EDT Tue Mar 20 2018

A strong and persistent area of high pressure, centered near
Hudson Bay, will continue to deliver cool and dry air to Michigan
through next weekend. Our dry weather pattern with considerable
sunshine will continue, although some light snow may brush far
southwest Lower Michigan on Saturday.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 330 PM EDT Tue Mar 20 2018

The system currently passing through the Ohio Valley Region and
the strong high to the north is resulting in a tight pressure
gradient. Expect our brisk northeast winds to persist through
Wednesday morning before the gradient gradually relaxes a bit.
That system will also result in considerable high level cloudiness
tonight into Wednesday. Those clouds depart Wednesday night,
leaving predominately clear skies for Thursday.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 330 PM EDT Tue Mar 20 2018

Deterministic models and the majority of individual ensemble
members continue to trend south with the Saturday system. This
makes sense given the very dry air mass and shearing pattern
aloft that continues to impact Michigan. Main impacts from that
system as it passes by to the south will be a a period of
increased cloudiness and another period of stronger/brisk east-
northeast winds.

As we move into next week, we should see moderating temperatures
as the dominant high begins to slip away and flow aloft goes more
southwesterly. A chance of rain showers should eventually develop
next week, but believe the GFS may be too fast and aggressive in
bringing in showers.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 154 PM EDT Tue Mar 20 2018

Brisk northeast winds of 15 to 25 kts with some higher gusts will
persist into Wednesday. VFR weather will continue the next 24-36
hours with clouds above 12,000 ft. However it is possible that
some MVFR level clouds streaming off Lake Huron will penetrate
inland toward the terminals later tonight and early Wednesday


Issued at 330 PM EDT Tue Mar 20 2018

Brisk northeast winds will continue tonight before turning more
northerly on Wednesday. Speeds flirting with Small craft Advisory
criteria through tonight, but wave heights remaining below
criteria due to offshore component of the wind. Highest wave
heights will be out toward open water.


Issued at 330 PM EDT Tue Mar 20 2018

Persistent dry pattern will allow rivers to continue to slowly
recede. The Portage River at Vicksburg will continue to remain
elevated for a few days yet, however. River levels should remain
near to below normal for the foreseeable future given the




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