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000
FXUS62 KGSP 121754
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
154 PM EDT Fri Apr 12 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Drier air will filter into our region this morning with a secondary
cold front. Very windy conditions also will develop and continue
into Saturday. Dry and warm weather returns for the weekend into
the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 140 PM: Been a windy day over the mountains thus far, with
frequent gusts also seen east of the Blue Ridge, so obviously
the Wind Advisory will continue. The KMRX radar shows numerous
showers over in east TN moving into the mtns at this time, which
is no surprise given the cold air aloft and an approaching short
wave. Will make a few tweaks to the precip chances, but otherwise
the forecast was in decent shape. Temp/dewpt trends look okay.

Otherwise...a Northwest flow will continue across the mountains
through tonight. As a wave passes over the Piedmont this evening,
a small PoP is included in the NC Piedmont. However, with strong
downsloping the mixed layer will be very deep, possibly up to 700 mb
or higher in some spots. That suggests the precip that is generated
may not reach the ground, but adds the potential for peak gusts of
40+ kt. Some NW flow precip chances do continue until midnight or
so. High elevations might see rain change to snow briefly before
ending, but most likely precip will just end as rain.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 228 AM Friday: A deep negatively tilted longwave trough will
be quickly lifting northeast and off the coast of New England on
Saturday with broad northwest flow continuing across the Southern
Appalachians. The airmass will be exceptionally dry and moisture
starved, thus no upslope showers are expected across the mountains.
Low-level temperatures will begin to warm with airmass modification
well underway amidst continued deep mixing to 800mb. This will
foster high temperatures in the low to mid 70s across much of the
area. The primary focus on Saturday will be increasing fire weather
issues as some degree of gusty winds will continue to mix down,
especially earlier in the day before the core of stronger winds pull
away with the upper trough. A deep and well mixed PBL will support
very low RH values in the upper teens to low 20s across the
foothills and Piedmont. Fire products may eventually be needed for
portions of the area on Saturday, especially where spring green up
hasn`t completely finished. By Sunday, deep-layer flow will quickly
become quasi-zonal as a northern stream shortwave trough passes by
to the north. Any showers should remain focused off to our north
across the Ohio Valley in the vicinity of an attendant surface cold
front. Warming of the airmass will continue unabated with highs
cracking the low to mid 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 241 AM Friday: Heading into early next week, the synoptic
pattern will undergo modest amplification as a potent compact trough
dives into the Desert Southwest on Monday and ejects into the
Southern Plains on Tuesday. This will in turn result in a
strengthening downstream ridge across the Appalachians with rising
heights and warming low-level temperatures. Afternoon highs are
expected to soar into the low to upper 80s Monday and Tuesday with
mild overnight lows in the upper 50s to low 60s. By midweek, the 12z
suite of global model guidance is in generally good agreement that
the Southern Plains closed upper low and associated trough will lift
northeast into the Midwest. In this solution, the Carolinas and
northeast Georgia will be displaced well south of the greatest
forcing for ascent with only subtle height falls across the region.
A trailing cold front extending along the Ohio Valley to the Lower
Mississippi Valley will quickly become oriented parallel to upper
flow with little eastward progression as the wave quickly lifts into
the Great Lakes. A general dearth of forcing will limit any sensible
weather across the area with only a slight chance for a few showers
to graze the mountains on Wednesday. A northern stream trough
emerges from the northern Rockies late week and should provide
enough forcing to drive a cold front towards the area around next
Friday. Guidance quickly diverges, however, with regards to the
strength and evolution of the wave. Regardless, warm temperatures in
the 80s will likely continue until the arrival of the late week
front.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR at all terminals through the period,
but the remainder of the daytime hours will feature frequent wind
gusts from the W. This presents a problem at KCLT of course. The
obs have been in agreement with the guidance that a WSW direction
will prevail and that was continued initially, but at some point
late in the day, the direction should veer slightly to WNW. That
change was instituted at 22Z, but confidence in that timing was
not great. It could easily slip into the early evening, when a
weak sfc trof comes off the mtns and gives the wrn Piedmont some
isolated shower activity. KAVL could have a period of VFR broken
ceiling with a passing shower into this evening. The winds finally
diminish and we lose the gusts temporarily in the early morning
hours Saturday. Gusts return by late morning Saturday, with the
direction favoring WNW to NW.

Outlook: Winds will remain gusty across the North Carolina mountains
through Saturday. VFR conditions will persist this weekend and
early next week as high pressure builds across the terminals.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ010-017-018-
     026-028-029.
NC...Wind Advisory until 10 AM EDT Saturday for NCZ033-048>050-052-
     053-059-063>065-501-503-505-507-509.
SC...Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ010-101>107.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Wimberley
NEAR TERM...PM/Wimberley
SHORT TERM...TW
LONG TERM...TW
AVIATION...PM