Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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FXUS61 KGYX 241706
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
106 PM EDT Sun Mar 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
The storm system that brought a lot of mixed precipitation and
snow to the region has moved out. We will be left with a chilly
and blustery day today. Much quieter weather is expected early
in the coming week with temperatures moderating to near seasonal
norms. Unsettled weather returns for the middle and second half
of the week, but with quiet low model certainty with numerous
weak waves in play.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
100 PM Update... Another round of minor changes to the near term
portion of the forecast.

Previously...
1015 AM Update... Minor changes to reflect latest observational
trends. High thin clouds will continue to move onshore through
the day from distant low pressure. Gusty winds up to 25-30 mph
will also persist through early this afternoon before
diminishing by early this evening.

Previously...
650 AM Update...No changes to the going forecast. SPS remains in
effect.

Previous...

The storm system that provided a lot of snow and mixed
precipitation has departed the area and skies are clearing.
However, we will be left with cold and blustery conditions
today.

All winter storm warnings have been cancelled but have issued a
couple of special weather statements, one for the ME coast and
the other for the higher elevations of southern NH. This to warm
about the dangers of falling ice and tree branches as winds
gust 25 to 35 MPH this morning.

Otherwise, winds diminish this afternoon and temperatures rise
into the 30s most areas with a few 40 degree readings possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
High pressure ridging tonight will offer fair weather, light
winds, and cold temperatures. Went lower than guidance on mins
tonight, especially in the interior where there is a fresh deep
snow pack.

Fair weather continues Monday with ridging in place.
Temperatures rebound to the lower 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Overview: After a brief stretch of dry weather, unsettled
conditions look to return to southern Maine and New Hampshire by
mid week, continuing into late week. Temperature trends appear
to favor warmer than normal conditions, but this won`t prevent
at least the chance of some freezing or frozen precip during the
period.

Details: High pressure will be taking residence north of Maine
into Monday, drifting into the Maritimes come Tuesday and
Wednesday. Flow at the surface remains NNE during this time
frame, which may be key for precip type into next system.

Generally light precipitation is currently forecast for Tuesday
afternoon into the overnight period, but there is a wide array
of solutions, both heavier and lighter, through this time
period. While stationary low pressure remains off the Mid-
Atlantic coast, low level moisture is sent north and caught in
broad anticyclonic flow. Most guidance depicts this moving
onshore in northern New England Tues night. However, intensity
and locations of QPF is variable. All guidance develops QPF, but
I`m hesitant to go with the greater amounts at this time given
dry air aloft. A period of this may fall out as drizzle,
especially Tuesday afternoon/evening. Overnight, there is a bit
better consensus on rain showers developing across much of the
area as forcing and pressure gradient increases across the area.

So I alluded to temperatures playing a role. A lot of this
moisture would arrive within a strong warm nose, with plenty of
dry air above it. However, the high positioned to the north
would assist in keeping surface temps actively cooler, perhaps
near freezing. So there are two uncertain moving parts here: a)
is there not a deep enough moisture layer for consistent precip
resulting in drizzle, and b) does active cooling via NE CAA keep
temps at surface cool enough for a slick outcome? Both QPF and
temps have a wide envelope here, so will monitor trends.
Currently side with a warmer, drier solution...but after a
couple nice days it will be back to gloomy skies beginning Tues
night.

The remainder of the extended will see increased precipitation
chances amid an unsettled pattern. Low pressure across the
central CONUS will swing a slow moving cold front towards New
England from the west. This boundary will help focus moisture
from the south and east into the region. This flow will favor
warmer than normal temps.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Short Term...VFR conditions are expected today through Monday,
except for some MVFR conditions in the mountains this morning.
Gusty NW SFC winds to 30 KT will be prevalent this morning, then
diminish this afternoon.

Long Term...MVFR ceilings Tuesday, trending IFR in the evening
and overnight. This may continue through Wednesday. Drizzle or
light rain accompanies this with surface winds from the
northeast. Slight chance some of this falls as freezing drizzle,
something to watch.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term..Gales and SCA continue into this morning and end
late morning. However, SCA conditions look to redevelop,
especially on the outer waters tonight and Monday as low
pressure well offshore of the Mid Atlantic coast pushes
northward and strengthens the pressure gradient.


Long Term...SCA conditions continue with winds gusting above 25
kt and wave heights 7 to 10 ft through Tuesday night. Winds do
lighten into Wednesday as high pressure drifts north of the
region. Would expect wave heights to remain supportive of SCA
conditions through midweek as NE wind continues with broadening
low pressure in the open Atlantic.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ150-152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ151-
     153.

&&

$$


NEAR TERM...Tubbs


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