473
FXUS66 KHNX 300749
AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hanford CA
1249 AM PDT Tue Apr 30 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

1. A Wind Advisory has been issued for the Mojave Desert Slopes
valid from 4 PM this afternoon through 5 AM Wednesday morning.

2. High temperatures will change little through Wednesday,
remaining around climatological averages for this time of year.

3. Warming conditions are expected late in the week with highs
around 8 to 12 degrees above normal on Friday. Probabilities of
exceedance for 90 degrees in the San Joaquin Valley and
portions of the Kern County desert are around 10 to 20%.

4. Ensemble guidance is trending towards a weekend system
bringing snowfall to the central Sierra Nevada and periods of
rainfall to the San Joaquin Valley.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Seasonal temperatures will continue today into Wednesday, along
with dry conditions. Highs in the warmest spots will be mainly
in the lower 80`s. The upper-level trough persists in the
Pacific Northwest with a ridge of high pressure off the coast
of California. This pattern will continue to provide a
sufficient gradient for gusty winds along the Mojave Desert
slopes in eastern Kern County once again for later this
afternoon until Wednesday morning. During this period, the
chances of gusts exceeding 50 mph is about 60 to 75 percent for
this area and about 25 to 40 percent for gusts of at least 55
mph. We will keep the Wind Advisory running for now, as areal
coverage for any stronger gusts is limited, based on the latest
high resolution ensemble guidance.

For Thursday through Saturday, a noticeable warming trend is in
store as the ridge builds over the Golden State. However, the
ridge will weaken a bit as it moves inland. High temperatures
by Friday are projected to rise to around ten degrees above
seasonal averages. A few locations in the Central Valley could
possibly reach near 90 degrees on Friday. However, based on the
latest probabilistic data, the exceedance values for
temperatures reaching at least 90 degrees have lowered to around
10 to 20 percent for the San Joaquin Valley and the Kern County
desert, particularly the Indian Wells Valley.

For Saturday night into Sunday, there remains a bit of
uncertainty regarding precipitation chances. Although, chances
for precipitation have expanded to much of our forecast area,
including into Kern County. In any case, cooler than normal
temperatures and increased winds return to our area by Sunday.

During early next week, our region could remain a bit cooler
than average, based on the latest outlooks from the Climate
Prediction Center, as well as ensemble guidance. There is a
good chance we return to a zonal flow or remain in a weak trough
pattern, based on latest cluster analyses of ensemble models
provided by the Weather Prediction Center. Otherwise, a minor
warming trend occurs with seasonal temperatures on next
Tuesday.

&&


.AVIATION...
Strong wind gusts 40 kts to near 50 kts are possible along the
Mojave Desert Slopes from 23Z Tuesday thru 12Z Wednesday.
Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail across central California
for at least the next 24 hours.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
None.



&&

.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
and/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 5 AM PDT Tuesday for CAZ338.
Wind Advisory from 4 PM Tuesday to 5 AM PDT Wednesday for
CAZ338.
&&

$$

BSO/DCH

weather.gov/hanford