Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
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973 FXUS64 KHUN 291352 AAA AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Huntsville AL 852 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024 ...New NEAR TERM... .NEAR TERM... (Rest of Today) Issued at 852 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024 The upper level ridge will continue to move east of the area through the day today, with a shortwave trough right on its heels. Additionally, the surface high that was over the Carolinas continues to shift east over the Atlantic as a cold front slowly makes its way towards the Tennessee Valley. Cloud cover has begun to increase from the west and will continue to overspread the region throughout the day. Not much has changed with regards to the rainfall forecast - not expecting showers/storms until later this afternoon when low to medium chances (20-60%) are possible west of I-65. Guidance indicates that instability will remain around or below 500 J/kg along with bulk shear values below 30 knots. While this will be conducive for thunderstorm development, severe storms are not expected at this time. Current temperatures across the local area are mainly in the upper 60s and highs are still forecast to top out in the lower 80s later this afternoon. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Wednesday night) Issued at 211 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024 Heavy rain and storms will move in overnight ahead of a cold front and as the aforementioned upper low continues to turn north through MN. With PWATs forecast to be between 1.5-1.7", rainfall amounts have increased a bit over the past 24 hours. An axis of heavier rainfall is forecast to set up near the I-65 corridor, where amounts could total up to 2.75". Outside of this heavier rain axis, expect amounts closer to 0.75-2" with the heaviest rainfall expected overnight tonight. With the grounds relatively dry, do not expect widespread flooding to be an issue overnight into Tuesday morning, but WPC has outlined the area in a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for excessive rainfall through Tuesday. Will continue to monitor trends in case amounts continue to increase, but it does not appear any flood related headlines are needed as of now. With the better thermodynamics to our south, these storms should remain below severe limits as the system shifts east. Expect rain to come to an end from west to east late Tuesday morning into the afternoon, with clearing skies and temps in the upper 70s. Winds will calm overnight Tuesday, and combined with clear skies could be a good setup for patchy fog. High pressure will settle over the area Wednesday, keeping us rain free and warm as highs rise into the mid 80s on Wednesday. Will have to watch for fog again Wednesday night as conditions look favorable, but will wait until closer in range to include any fog in the official forecast. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Sunday) Issued at 211 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024 An upper ridge pattern will continue to translate eastward into the mid/southern Atlantic states heading into the end of the work week. High pressure at the sfc will also remain layered from the NE states into the Carolinas, resulting in afternoon highs climbing predom into the mid 80s/near 80F both Thu/Fri. An upper trough axis will also be rotating eastward thru the mid/northern Plains, with an attendant sfc low lifting NE into the Great Lakes area. This sfc wave will help drag a cold front eastward thru the Midwest/Mid South regions well into the day Fri. Low-medium chances for showers/tstms (20-50%) will develop along/ahead of the oncoming cold front late Thu into Fri. Sct showers/tstms will then continue into the first half of the weekend, as the frontal boundary moves SE thru the central TN Valley. Low chances for showers/tstms (20-30%) will also linger thru the second half of the weekend period, as the broad upper trough pattern moves eastward across the region. Minimal low-level convergence/instability coupled with better dynamic forcing displayed N/W of the area should offset the prob for more organized/stronger tstms, with QPF totals around 0.25-0.50 inches thru the upcoming weekend. Seasonably warm temps will continue Sat/Sun, with highs mainly in the lower 80s/near 80F, while overnight trends predom in the upper 50s/mid 60s. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 625 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024 VFR conditions will prevail through the daytime hours at both terminals with south/southeasterly winds gradually increasing through the day. Will also see an increase in high clouds this morning ahead of a disturbance that will bring widespread showers/storms to the area this evening through tomorrow morning. Rain chances will pick up from west to east in the 20-00z timeframe, and reductions to MVFR/IFR conditions will be possible from there. Periods of LIFR conditions cannot be ruled our during heavier shower/storms. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...26 SHORT TERM....25 LONG TERM....09 AVIATION...25