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000
FXUS63 KICT 220837
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
337 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Windy today along and west of the Kansas Turnpike.

- Low chance of storms late tonight into early Tuesday morning for
portions of central and southeast Kansas.

- Active pattern to end the week starting as soon as Thursday.
Severe weather is possible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 332 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

Analyzing the upper air pattern this morning, a trough is sliding
eastward over the Appalachians while another trough is digging
southeastward into the north-central plains. At the surface,
pressure falls across the High Plains are tightening the pressure
gradient across the area, and southerly winds are gradually
increasing this morning. With additional mixing after sunrise,
sustained winds out of the south/southwest are expected to increase
to around 30 to 35 mph with gusts around 45 to 50 mph possible.
However, a surface trough is expected to begin entering the region
late this afternoon/this evening, and winds should decrease as a
result. As the surface trough sweeps across the forecast area,
a low chance of isolated showers and storms exists late tonight
into early Tuesday morning along and northeast of a Salina-
Marion-Chanute line. Despite northeast winds on Tuesday,
afternoon highs should be slightly above average while on
Wednesday, cloud cover should keep temperatures near average for
this time of year.

Starting on Thursday, mid to long range global models continue to
indicate an active pattern incoming for the central plains. However,
it should be emphasized that exact details are going to be tough to
iron out over the next couple of days as there remains some
significant differences in the progression of western CONUS trough
ejecting into the central plains. There is increasing confidence
that mid-level WAA late Wednesday night into Thursday morning will
trigger scattered elevated showers and storms across much of
the forecast area. While the setup isn`t ideal, it appears there
will be modest amounts elevated instability and shear to
support maybe a couple of strong storms that could produce some
small hail late Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Later in
the afternoon and evening, an upper trough is expected to move
into the central plains, but models differ with the exact
timing. An earlier trough arrival, as shown with the GFS, would
likely lead to a nighttime severe threat for locations west of
US-81 Thursday night and a limited severe potential on Friday
with subsidence overspreading areas east of an advancing
dryline. However, a later trough arrival, as shown by the
Euro/Canadian, would likely lead to the severe threat remaining
well to the west on Thursday, and much of the area potentially
seeing a severe weather threat on Friday. Models diverge even
more this weekend with the intensity, position, and timing of
a second upper trough progged to arrive this weekend. That
being said, severe weather may accompany this system as well,
though details for this weekend are very fuzzy this far out.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1243 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

Main aviation concern will be strong southwest winds this
afternoon.

A tight pressure gradient is expected to setup across the Plains
today and will allow for strong southwest winds. We are looking
for sustained speeds in the 25-35 mph range with gusts 40-45
mph. The strongest winds are expected for KHUT-KSLN-KGBD-KRSL.
Winds will quickly start to decrease around or shortly after
sunset. Confidence remains high that VFR conditions will remain
in place through the next 24 hours.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 332 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

Today: Southerly to southwesterly winds will be sustained around 30
to 35 mph with gusts around 45 to 50 mph along with relative
humidity values around 30 to 35% will support very high grassland
fire danger across portions of central and south-central Kansas.

Tuesday: Breezy northeast winds will support a brief period of very
high grassland fire danger during the afternoon hours for locations
along and west of State Highway 14.

Friday: There is uncertainty in the forecast, but very high
grassland fire danger is possible across portions of central and
south-central Kansas during the afternoon hours.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 6 PM CDT this evening
for KSZ032-033-047>053-067>069-082-083-091>093.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JC
AVIATION...RBL
FIRE WEATHER...JC