Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
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844 FXUS63 KICT 031805 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 105 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... - Storms likely tonight into early Saturday with some strong to severe storms possible tonight, especially across portions of central KS. - Showers and a few storms return late Saturday night into early Sunday across southern and southeast KS. - Increasing threat of severe weather on Monday evening and Monday night. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 138 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Water vapor satellite imagery and RAP analysis continue to show a robust mid/upper trough along the Canadian border over the Northern Plains/Saskatchewan-Manitoba region moving northeastward while another progressive shortwave trough was digging across the Northern Rockies. Meanwhile, a cold front was draped over the Middle Mississippi Valley area and points southwestward into the Southern Plains. A stable post-frontal regime is firmly entrenched across the forecast area today leading to quite weather conditions for the daytime hours. Seasonably mild conditions are anticipated with relatively light winds and highs in the 70s. For tonight, the shortwave trough over the Northern Rockies will sweep eastward driving another cold front southward across the Central Plains. This front will provide a focus for showers and thunderstorms tonight. Elevated CAPE and steep mid-lvl lapse rates should support some strong to severe storms, especially across our central KS counties this evening where damaging winds and marginally severe hail will be possible. Uncertainty grows further south and east as we move through the overnight hours with waning elevated CAPE and a weakening LLJ progged. Some remnant shower and storm activity could linger early in the day on Saturday across southern KS but the focus is expected to shift south and east of the area on Saturday afternoon as a stable post- frontal regime materializes across the area. Seasonably cool temperatures are anticipated with highs ranging from the mid 60s in central KS to the lower 70s in southeast KS. Another shortwave trough lifting out of the Southern Rockies and over the Southern Plains could bring an increasing chance for showers and storms late Saturday night into Sunday morning but there remains some uncertainty in how far north it will track with higher probabilities remaining across far southern and southeast KS. The threat for strong or severe storms is expected to remain south of the area with this system but a further north track could result in better moisture return and the potential for more robust deep moist convection. As we move into early next week, a vigorous mid/upper trough is progged to move into the Rockies before emerging negatively tilted over the Central Plains late on Monday. Conditions continue to look favorable for a more widespread severe weather event on Monday afternoon and Monday evening across the Central Plains. The EPS/GEFS continue to advertise a vigorous upper jet nosing into Kansas late Monday where high quality moisture is progged in the warm sector. It is looking like a synoptically evident event unfolding where significant severe weather may unfold including supercells with very large hail, damaging winds and tornadoes. Tue-Thu...Drier air will overspread the region in the wake of the Pacific front on Tue with dry weather and mild conditions expected with highs in the 80s. Heights/thickness are progged to lower as we move into the middle of the week with a vigorous and slow moving trough progged to camp over the Northern Plains. This is expected to result in mostly dry weather with seasonable temperatures in the 70s for most areas on Wed-Thu. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1249 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Returning low-level moisture will support continued MVFR ceilings through the afternoon, possibly scattering out and/or lifting for a time this evening, before filling back in overnight. Meanwhile, a strong cold front will blast south across the region later tonight through Saturday morning, with gusty north winds and MVFR to possibly IFR ceilings in its wake. A line or broken line of showers and thunderstorms moving east- southeast will likely accompany this frontal zone overnight into early Saturday. Dime to quarter size hail and 50-60 mph winds may accompany the strongest activity, especially across central Kansas before 3 AM. Locally heavy rainfall is also possible. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...MWM AVIATION...ADK