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000
FXUS63 KICT 211708
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1208 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong winds and very high fire danger on Monday.

- Getting into active pattern starting Thu and continuing
  through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 315 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

Water vapor imagery currently shows some shortwave energy
sinking southeast across eastern Nebraska into Northeast KS with
a more robust upper wave moving into British Columbia.
Meanwhile at the surface, high pressure is situated over
southwest Nebraska/nw KS and encompasses the majority of the
Plains.

Looking for a fairly pleasant day today across the area with
light winds and highs a few degrees below normal. Surface high
will slide into the Arklatex/Lower Mississippi Valley region by
Monday afternoon as lee troughing deepens as strong jet energy
moves-in from the Northern Rockies. This will setup strong
pressure gradient along with strong southwest winds area wide
for Mon. Wouldn`t be shocked if we end up needing a wind
advisory for Mon afternoon, especially across central KS. Still
looking for the upper impulse to track across the Northern
Plains Mon evening and into the Upper Mississippi Valley by Tue
afternoon. This will allow a weak cold front to move through the
forecast area during the day Tue and should push through the
entire area by late Tue afternoon. Rainfall chances continue to
lower with each model run so confidence in any location picking
up meaningful rainfall is very low at this time for Mon night-
Tue.

For Wed into Wed evening, a brief period of upper ridging is
expected to move across the region as the surface high moves
into the Great Lakes region. Meanwhile, a fast moving compact
shortwave is forecast to lift out of the Desert Southwest and
over the Four Corners region by Thu afternoon. GFS has stayed
the course with the timing of this feature and the last couple
runs of the ECMWF have come around to this faster GFS solution.
Ahead of this impulse, moisture transport will start to ramp-up
late Tue night into Wed morning and may bring some sct
convection to OK and parts of southern KS. By Thu afternoon,
shortwave will be moving out into the High Plains with a dryline
setting up from southwest KS down into the TX Panhandle.
Meanwhile, over the eastern half of KS, strong 850-700mb
moisture transport, near and north of a lifting warm front,
should support at least sct showers and storms into the early
evening.

Confidence starts to drop off for the Fri-Sat time frame. The
GFS is more progressive with the upper wave and tracks it across
eastern KS on Fri, while the ECMWF lift it into west-central
Nebraska. At this time it appears at least eastern KS would be
in play for storms on Fri and possibly areas further west if the
ECMWF verifies. Then for Sat both ECMWF and GFS dig a deep
western CONUS upper trough and progress it very slowly east
into Sun. The trend so far with this trough has been to slow it
down and dig it deeper. Over the Plains, confidence is high that
there will be plenty of rich moisture around for both Sat and
Sun. However, with the better upper dynamics further west,
confidence on widespread convection is low.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1204 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

VFR conditions will prevail across the region for the rest of
today and tonight. Meanwhile southerly winds will be on the
increase tomorrow and will become rather strong and gusty,
especially across central/south central Kansas.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 315 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

Very high fire danger still looks likely on Mon afternoon.

Confidence is high that strong southwest winds will overspread
the area by Mon afternoon with gusts in the 40-45 mph range
likely over central KS. Afternoon RH`s on Mon are forecast to
generally be around 30%. These conditions will result in very
high grassland fire danger for areas along and especially west
of I-135.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RBL
AVIATION...CDJ
FIRE WEATHER...RBL