Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
747 FNUS72 KILM 241018 FWSILM Spot Forecast for McLean Rx...The Nature Conservancy National Weather Service Wilmington NC 618 AM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024 Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 EDT on April 24. If conditions become unrepresentative...or if you have questions or concerns about this forecast...contact the National Weather Service in Wilmington at 910-762-1374. .DISCUSSION... Seasonable temperatures and breezy southwest winds are expected today in advance of a cold front that will reach the area tonight. Scattered showers are possible this evening. Behind the front, dry weather is expected for Thursday through the weekend as high pressure builds in from the north. Wind profile analysis/fire control over flat terrain is Favorable. Fog potential for tonight is Moderate. .REST OF TODAY... Sky/weather.........Sunny (5-15 percent). Max temperature.....Around 78. Min humidity........35 percent. Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 9 to 12 mph. Max mixing hgt......6700 ft AGL. Transport winds.....West 18 to 22 mph. Max vent rate.......Excellent (123237 mph-ft). Max LVORI...........3. Max ADI.............134. Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large plume dominated fire growth. TIME (EDT) 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM Sky (%).........16 18 6 3 8 5 4 14 21 Weather cov..... Weather type.... Tstm cov........ Temp............59 65 69 72 75 77 77 78 77 RH..............69 54 46 41 38 35 36 40 43 20 FT wind dir..SW SW SW W W W W W SW 20 FT wind spd..9 10 10 11 12 12 10 9 9 20 FT wind gust.14 15 17 15 15 14 14 14 14 Mix hgt (kft)...1.4 2.0 3.0 3.9 5.3 6.1 6.4 6.7 5.7 Transp wind dir.W W W W W W W W W Transp wind spd.22 22 22 20 20 18 18 18 18 Stability.......B C C C C C C B B LVORI...........3 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 ADI.............40 54 70 72 83 83 85 134 118 Haines index....5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 Vrate mph-ft/1K.31 44 66 77 103 113 118 123 105 Ventrate Cat....PR FR GD GD VGD VGD VGD VGD VGD Sfc pres (in)...008 008 006 006 006 000 000 000 995 .TONIGHT... Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (40-50 percent) then becoming mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Chance of rain showers in the evening. Min temperature.....Around 57. Max humidity........96 percent. Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 6 to 8 mph early in the evening becoming light. Min mixing hgt......400 ft AGL. Transport winds.....West 13 to 18 mph, shifting to the southwest 8 to 10 mph in the late evening, then shifting to the north around 8 mph after 3 am. Min vent rate.......Poor (3408 mph-ft). Max LVORI...........8. Min ADI.............4. Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM Sky (%).........43 66 85 84 79 64 64 61 64 58 55 49 Weather cov..... SCH CHC SCH SCH Weather type.... RW RW RW RW Tstm cov........ Temp............75 71 67 64 62 62 61 60 59 59 58 57 RH..............50 59 70 77 82 84 88 90 92 94 96 95 20 FT wind dir..SW SW NW NW W S S S SW W NW NW 20 FT wind spd..7 6 4 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 20 FT wind gust.12 9 7 6 5 4 4 4 3 4 4 4 Mix hgt (kft)...3.6 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 Transp wind dir.W SW W NW W SW S SW SW N NW N Transp wind spd.18 14 13 12 10 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 Stability.......B E E F F F F F F F F F LVORI...........1 2 3 4 4 5 6 6 6 6 8 8 ADI.............80 9 8 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 Haines index....4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 Vrate mph-ft/1K.66 6 6 5 5 3 3 4 4 4 3 4 Ventrate Cat....GD PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR Sfc pres (in)...995 995 000 000 000 006 006 006 004 004 004 005 .THURSDAY... Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (20-30 percent). Max temperature.....Around 75. Min humidity........48 percent. Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming northeast around 5 mph late in the morning, then shifting to the east around 6 mph late in the afternoon. Max mixing hgt......7100 ft AGL. Transport winds.....North 8 to 13 mph shifting to the east 13 to 14 mph late in the afternoon. Max vent rate.......Good (74013 mph-ft). Max LVORI...........8. Max ADI.............88. Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM Sky (%).........43 38 25 15 8 20 Weather cov..... Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE Tstm cov........ Temp............57 58 65 72 75 73 RH..............95 93 72 56 48 53 20 ft wind......N 3 N 4 N 4 NE 5 NE 5 E 6 20 ft wind gust.5 6 8 8 8 10 Mix hgt (ft)....400 800 2300 4400 7100 4400 Transport wind..N 8 N 10 N 12 N 12 N 10 E 13 Stability.......F A A A A B LVORI...........8 5 3 1 1 1 ADI.............4 10 34 63 88 66 Haines index....4 4 4 4 4 4 Vrate mph-ft/1K.3 8 26 50 74 56 Ventrate Cat....POOR POOR POOR FAIR GOOD FAIR Sfc pres (in)...30.05 30.12 30.12 30.17 30.11 30.11 $$ Forecaster...Armstrong Requested by...Nathan Burmester Type of request...PRESCRIBED .TAG 2412142.0/ILM .DELDT 04/24/24 .FormatterVersion 2.0.0 .EMAIL nathan.burmester@tnc.org