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000
FXUS61 KILN 211007
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
607 AM EDT Sun Apr 21 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will lead to dry but cool conditions through the
weekend. Temperatures will moderate somewhat by Monday before a
chance of showers returns for Tuesday into Tuesday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
For today, surface ridging will remain across the Ohio Valley.
A mid level s/wv in the northwest flow aloft, along with
moisture/cool air located at 850 mb, will result in
stratocumulus/cumulus coverage. Some additional mid and high
clouds will be found across southern locations this morning
ahead of the s/wv. Thus, it will be cool today as temperatures
are held down. Highs will range from the lower to mid 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
For tonight, s/wv moves off to the southeast. 850 mb moisture
/cold pool will pivot southeast as well. With diurnal cooling
and subsidence in the wake of the s/wv, skies will clear this
evening. And with clear skies overnight and winds become light
to locally calm, the stage will be set for a pretty good chance
for frost formation. Most locations will drop into the 33 to 36
degree range. However, some of the normal cold spots could reach
32 or slightly lower. A Frost Advisory has been issued for the
entire area, in effect from 1 AM to 9 AM.

On Monday, other than some FEW-SCT diurnal cumulus from late
morning into the afternoon, skies will be mostly sunny. The
ridge axis will begin to shift east, allowing temperatures to
moderate. Highs will range from the lower to perhaps mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure shifts southeast of the region on Monday night
and a surface low and upper level trough approaches from the
northwest. Increasing southwesterly flow and thickening cirrus
keep lows in the middle 40s areawide overnight. A cold front
attached to the disturbance will continue diving into the Ohio
Valley on Tuesday before pushing through the area Tuesday night.
Rain chances increase through the day ahead of the front before
ending late Tuesday night after FROPA. Thunder chances remain
low since instability is limited to non-existent. QPF should
also remain on the lower side since PWATs are not forecast to
get overly high.

High pressure builds in from the northwest Wednesday through
Thursday bringing below average temperatures and dry weather.
Surface high pressure shifts east on Friday which will allow
southerly flow to redevelop over the Ohio Valley. Rain chances
return on the southerly flow through the end of the week. Warmer
conditions return thanks to persistent southerly flow.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A surface high pressure ridge will remain across the Ohio
Valley through the TAF period. Despite the high, a mid level
disturbance will bring an increase in VFR stratocumulus/cumulus
as well as a period of mid and high level clouds. Winds will be
from the northwest around 5 knots, increasing between 10 and 15
knots around 15Z with local gusts up to 20 knots.

For tonight, once the mid level disturbance passes by to the
southeast and diurnal cooling begins, clouds will decrease with
mainly clear skies expected overnight. Winds will decrease and
become light west/northwest to 5 knots or less.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR ceilings and MVFR visibilities possible
Tuesday. Gusty winds to 30 knots possible Tuesday. MVFR ceilings
may linger into Wednesday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM EDT Monday for OHZ026-034-035-
     042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM EDT Monday for KYZ089>100.
IN...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM EDT Monday for INZ050-058-059-
     066-073>075-080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Hickman
NEAR TERM...Hickman
SHORT TERM...Hickman
LONG TERM...Campbell
AVIATION...Hickman