527
FXUS63 KIWX 101919
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
319 PM EDT Fri May 10 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms tonight along a cold front. Small
  hail is possible, but widespread severe weather is not
  expected.

- Breezy and cool Saturday.

- Beautiful weather Sunday followed by wet weather starting
  Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Fri May 10 2024

A compact upper-level low is noted on water vapor imagery over the
Arrowhead of Minnesota as of midday. At the surface, a cold front
extends southeast through Minnesota. A very dry air mass is noted in
the upper Midwest; dew points in the 30s. Meanwhile, dew points near
45F here are only a modest improvement. Water vapor shows
little to no moisture advection into this feature, which, paired
with the low dew points, validate the poor radar returns along
the cold front. Model guidance suggests the surface low will
deepen over the next 24 hours (aided by a strengthening 70 knot
jet at 500-mb), resulting in improved shower coverage along the
front tonight, though moisture advection remains poor. MUCAPE
near 500 j/kg and mid-level lapse rates in excess of 7 C/km
favor a chance of thunder. Otherwise, forecast soundings suggest
a well- capped environment diminishing the overall severe
weather risk. However, small hail is plausible with the freezing
level just beyond 5,500 ft. Showers and storms will enter
northwest Indiana near 1am EDT and depart northwest Ohio near
9am EDT. Total rainfall will be less then 0.25".

Breezy and cool on Saturday, with gusty northwest west wind flowing
into the deepening surface low now to our east. Wind gusts diminish
near sunset Saturday, followed by beautiful weather for Mother`s
Day. Warm air advection resumes and heights rising aloft will
help our afternoon highs reach the low-70s. This warmth prevails
into Monday but with a chance of rain by the afternoon.

Rain chances then persist through Wednesday as our area becomes a
transition zone between a departing low over James Bay and a
developing low over Missouri. Forecast rainfall varies notably
among model guidance at this juncture. Beyond Wednesday, some
dry time Thursday is followed by more rain into Friday and next
Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1235 PM EDT Fri May 10 2024

Primarily VFR this period ahead of sys dropping out of the upper
midwest. Cold front will support a narrow band of light rain
overnight but of limited duration as sys aloft is quite progressive.
Otherwise brief/transient post frontal stratocu may develop toward
daybreak however model implied signal is muted w/fairly robust
mixing in shallow cold advection wing. This will yield a quick jump
in w-nwrly gusts to 25kts at times by mid morning.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Brown
AVIATION...T