Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 231922
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
222 PM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024

...New DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 220 PM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024

Tonight and Sunday: Continued dry and cooler than normal through the
period. Mid afternoon surface analysis had a 1030mb high centered
over the northern Great Lakes region ridging south just west of our
CWA. This surface high and associated ridge will continue shifting
east through Sunday. By Sunday afternoon the surface ridge will be
oriented such that return flow will be back across our CWA. This
return flow will combine with mid level shortwave ridging and help
temperatures top out several degrees warmer than this afternoon. In
the wake of the cold front and with the surface ridge across our CWA
tonight, temperatures will bottom out well below normal from the
upper 30s northeast to the lower 40s elsewhere. Considering the
temperatures and a light north to northeast wind tonight,
significant frost development is not anticipated. /22/

Sunday night through Friday night: The primary focus in the longer
range portion of the forecast will be on the potential severe
weather event for late Monday into Monday night with additional
concerns for strong gradient winds and heavy rainfall.

For Monday through Monday night - a strong shortwave trough will
approach from the west as ridging remains locked in along the east
coast. An intensifying low level jet combined with surface pressure
falls and a tightening pressure gradient along with decreasing
boundary layer stability will likely combine to mix down strong
surface wind gusts as we go through the day Monday, and expect these
winds to continue Monday night.

Increasing ascent associated with the initial mid level perturbation
Monday will combine with strong deep layer shear to quickly initiate
and organize deep convection to our west, and a QLCS with damaging
wind/tornado potential is likely to move into western portions of
our area just prior to evening. The system may slow down and even re-
organize some as another perturbation upstream begins to approach
and backs the low-mid level flow, but it should eventually cross the
entire area overnight, with the severe threat picking up over
southeast portions of the area late Mon night/early Tue morning.
While instability is not forecast to be impressive, the strong
ascent and shear will make for at least a high cape/low shear type
severe weather event. It is possible that some portions of the
current severe weather outlook will be increased to an "enhanced"
risk as we get closer, so stay tuned for updates.

In addition, a intense rainfall rates are expected to accompany the
convective system, but the progressive nature should keep impacts
limited to localized flash flooding and minor river flooding. We
will continue to monitor for a mention of flooding and include in
the hazard graphics as confidence increases.

Looking ahead to the mid/latter portions of the week and into the
next weekend - cooler continental air will follow the cold front for
mid week bringing dry weather and cooler than normal temperatures.
Then expect a longwave ridge to build and persist over the central
CONUS as we go into late week and next weekend. This should bring
additional dry weather for the most part with warming temperatures.
/EC/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024

The gusty north wind 18-20kts wl subside later this aftn. VFR
conditions wl prevail through the TAF period. /22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       42  69  57  73 /   0   0   0  30
Meridian      39  71  53  70 /   0   0   0  10
Vicksburg     42  69  57  77 /   0   0   0  60
Hattiesburg   42  72  57  74 /   0   0   0  10
Natchez       44  70  59  78 /   0   0   0  60
Greenville    41  64  56  71 /   0   0   0  70
Greenwood     41  68  56  70 /   0   0   0  40

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

22/EC/22


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