391
FXUS64 KJAN 280834
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
334 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

...New DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 334 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Through tonight: We remain in a warm southerly flow regime this
morning with a moderate surface pressure gradient between a potent
storm system over the Plains and ridging along the Atlantic
coast. Within this regime, low stratus clouds are increasing early
this morning and may remain a bit more prolific into the daytime
than yesterday. However, with increasing mixing they should lift
by late morning into this afternoon. Scattered showers or perhaps
a storm cannot be ruled out this afternoon across southeast MS,
where a ribbon of greater mid level moisture is forecast to lift
across the area. Most areas will remain dry through the day,
though. Once again, due to the surface pressure gradient and
deep mixing up to near 800 mb, winds will be gusty at times
through the day. We will continue to advertise a limited threat
for gradient wind gusts, but gusts are expected to remain below
advisory criteria.

Through the day, the upper trough to our west will progress
eastward, with the associated surface cyclone lifting northward
toward the upper Midwest into tonight. Convection is expected to
occur today ahead of the trailing cold front from coastal Texas
through the ArkLaTex into the Ozarks. As these storms progress
eastward into tonight, they will begin to reach our southeast AR
and northeast LA areas during the overnight hours. Recent runs of
the HRRR have brought these storms into the area notably earlier
than most other solutions, but these runs have been quite
consistent. Given this, we will continue to hedge the beginning of
the severe threat to as early as around midnight for our
westernmost areas. In terms of hazards, the overnight timing
increases the likelihood that convective mode will mainly be
linear, most favoring damaging wind potential. However, mid level
lapse rates are forecast to be rather steep, so large hail will
also be possible. In addition, with respectable low level SRH
forecast, tornadoes will also be possible, especially for any
discrete cells or line segments that surge more northeastward in
better alignment with marginally supportive 0-3 km bulk shear
vectors. /DL/

Monday through early next week...

Our area will continue to see no real airmass change through the
week under the influence of a late spring regime. Intermittent
disturbances keep rain and storm chances through the forecast
period, with the primary focus on a system Monday. Strong to
severe storms and heavy rain appear probable, thus a
slight/marginal risk and limited risk have been highlighted for
severe and flood respectively. Right entrance region of the mid-
upper jet will provide largescale ascent over the area as a
shortwave pushes across the area Monday. Convection will be
ongoing Sunday night into early Monday morning, mainly west of the
River, and this activity will pose a threat for damaging winds
and possibly a brief weak tornado. There exists some uncertainty
regarding the evolution of this complex given boundary parallel
flow and tendency for cold pool dominance. However, the shortwave
and associated speed max could enhance organization. At least a
brief window for cold pool driven damaging wind gusts appears
probable, especially further west. In addition, PWAT in excess of
1.5 inches and deep warm cloud layer will result in efficient
rainfall rates, thus a flash flood threat also appears possible.

Warm and humid conditions will continue through the rest of the
period under the influence of broad upper ridging with
intermittent disturbances. These disturbances should continue to
support rain and storm chances throughout the week, though nothing
of significance is likely. Late week, a weak cold front could
bring slightly cooler temperatures, especially north of HWY 82,
though significant airmass change is unlikely./SAS/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1231 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

VFR conditions prevail across most of the region early this
morning, but an MVFR stratus deck has begun to develop and will
expand through the morning hours. VFR conditions will return by
late morning as these clouds mix out. During the day, S/SE winds
will be gusty at times with some gusts to near 30 kt possible.
Isolated SHRA or TS cannot be ruled out but most sites will remain
dry. Later in the evening, MVFR stratus will begin to redevelop
and expand into Sunday night with increasing chances for SHRA and
TS late. /DL/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       84  67  78  62 /  20  40  90  60
Meridian      85  63  83  62 /  30  10  60  70
Vicksburg     87  66  75  64 /  10  60  90  40
Hattiesburg   84  66  82  64 /  20  10  70  60
Natchez       86  65  77  64 /  10  60  90  40
Greenville    85  67  73  63 /  10  90 100  30
Greenwood     85  67  75  63 /  20  60  90  50

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

DL/SAS