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000
FXUS63 KLBF 212027
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
327 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

* A dry forecast is expected through Monday afternoon with warming
  temperatures into the 70s.

* Isolated rain and thunderstorm chances return on Monday evening
  with a low risk of severe storms.

* The next significant rain and thunderstorm potential arrives
  on Thursday into Friday, however, the risk of severe storms is
  low at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 317 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

A mostly quiet forecast is in store for north central Nebraska
through the short term. Outside of some low end thunderstorm/rain
shower chances across portions of southwest Nebraska due to a weak
shortwave moving through Monday evening, conditions remain dry and
mild. At this time, the severe potential for Monday evening/night is
low as instability remains weak across the region. However, an
isolated thunderstorm or two could still be possible after 7pm CT
but should be short lived as storms move into a better environment
to the south and east. High temperatures will continue to climb into
the low 60s by late this afternoon with slightly higher temperatures
in the mid 60s to low 70s on Monday. Overnight lows for both tonight
and Monday night will only drop into the mid 30s to low 40s keeping
any frost/freeze potential at bay for the time being.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 317 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

Quieter and dry weather returns on Tuesday as upper level ridging
slowly returns across the western US and surface high pressure
nudges into the central US. Some weak cold air advection with 850 mb
temperatures in the 2 to 7 C range will allow for surface highs to
only rise into the upper 50s to low 60s on Tuesday. Warmer
temperatures return for the remainder of the extended period with
highs in the low 60s to low 70s through next weekend.

Outside of some isolated rain showers on Wednesday night, the next
chance of significant precipitation and thunderstorms arrives on
Thursday and lasting into Friday. A developing low pressure system
will push off the Rockies into the High Plains and slowly deepen as
it approaches Nebraska and Kansas. Confidence in timing and track of
this system is low and therefore, the severe risk is uncertain.
Confidence is moderate, though, that much of north central Nebraska
will see decent rainfall amounts (0.5 to 1 inch) between Thursday
and Friday night. While severe storms is unknown at this time, some
embedded and isolated storms are entirely possible and rainfall
rates will be higher wherever these storms develop. Stay tuned to
later forecasts for increasing confidence on details for this
developing late week system.

For next weekend (Saturday into Sunday), confidence remains low in
precipitation amounts following the late week system. Models remain
inconsistent in timing and track and therefore some have lingering
rain through much of the weekend. Other forecast runs show a brief
dry period for Saturday before another round of rain/thunderstorms
returns on Sunday. Will continue to monitor this through this week
and make any adjustments to the forecast as the environment and
upper level pattern becomes more certain.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

Dry west and southwest winds this afternoon and tonight will
maintain VFR conditions across western and north central
Nebraska. A Pacific cold front moving through the nrn Rockies
this afternoon will arrive in northern Nebraska Monday morning.
Dry air below 7000 ft should maintain VFR ceilings as the front
enters Nebraska.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kulik
LONG TERM...Kulik
AVIATION...CDC