062
FXUS64 KLCH 290241
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
941 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 928 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Wind Advisory has expired for portions of Acadiana. However, kept
the Advisory for Cameron Parish and expanded to include Calcasieu
Parish, and Jefferson and Orange Counties as sustained speeds
remain elevated around 20 MPH with gusts between 30 and 35 MPH.
Advisory should expire by midnight, with winds expected to
gradually diminish. Otherwise, refreshed PoP/Wx grids to reflect
recent radar trends and latest guidance, but overall changes were
not too extravagant. Still expect the cluster of convection, which
has been parked just NW of our area for about an hour, to begin
to propagate E/SE into our CWA late this evening into overnight.

24

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 701 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

A quick update to adjust headlines, removing the Coastal Flood
Warning/Advisory and including the newly issued Tornado Watch for
Tyler, Jasper, Newton Counties and Vernon Parish. Conditions
remain conducive for severe storms later this evening into
overnight as a potent midlevel shortwave moves into the region.
Area radars show multiple clusters of strong to severe storms from
roughly Marshall TX southwest to near Madisonville TX. CAM
guidance is a mixed bag of solutions (none seem to be very well
initialized), but a general consensus suggests that the storm
clusters will lift NE this evening, with a general eastward
progression of the entire system. Outside of a few showers or an
isolated storm forming in advance of the main group of storms, the
stronger convection is expected to enter our northwestern zones
between 10 PM and midnight. Damaging wind gusts will be the main
threat with any severe storms, but a few storms could produce an isolated
tornado or two along with 1+ inch hail. Heavy rainfall will be the
other concern overnight and a Flash Flood Watch remains in
effect.

24

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday night)

Wx map shows surface high pressure off the East Coast and a low
pressure trough across the Central Plains southward to Central
Texas. Over our region, the pressure gradient is slowly relaxing,
allowing for winds to diminish for all areas except the immediate
coastal parishes. Thus, have trimmed back the Wind Advisory for SE
TX and the I-10 corridor of Southern Louisiana.

Minor coastal flooding continuing with values peaking between 1.5
to 1.8 feet Mean Higher High Water (MHHW) earlier this morning
along the coast, and this afternoon across the Sabine and
Calcasieu basins. Considering the duration of these southeast
winds keeping tides 1-2 feet above astronomical tide over two days
now, sufficient infiltration into the marshes and low lying
coastal areas have likely occurred. Thus, will keep the ongoing
Coastal Flood Warning for Southern Jefferson & Orange Counties and
Cameron & Southern Calcasieu Parishes. Further east across
coastal Vermilion, Iberia, and St. Mary Parishes, tides reached
1.5 feet Mean Higher High Water (MHHW) during the times of high
tide. Thus, kept the ongoing Coastal Flood Advisory. With
southeast winds expected to diminish before next high tide cycle,
lower tides are expected. Therefore, the Coastal Flood Warnings
and Advisories will not be reissued for Monday.

The approaching longwave mid to upper level trough over Central
Plains southward to Texas expected to move slowly as the
shortwave within the base of the trough ejects northeastward
through Monday. Showers and thunderstorms have reformed across
Central and Northeast Texas. This area is expected to move across
Northeast Texas this evening, with development further southwest.
This area is expected to either maintain or redevelop as an MCS into
the overnight hours through Monday morning. Severe weather will be
possible, with the greatest risk across Inland SE TX late this
evening/early Monday morning. SPC has Enhanced Risk for Tyler &
Northern Jasper, and Slight Risk for remainder of area into
Central and Southern Louisiana, expect Marginal Risk over Lower
Acadiana. All modes of severe weather will be possible. The other
item will be the expected rainfall of 3 to 5 inches with locally
higher amounts through Monday evening. This areal extent has
shifted southward, thus have extended the Flood Watch southward as
well to include all of Southeast Texas and along the I-10
corridor northward across Central and Southern Louisiana. Did not
include Lafayette parish and the remainder of Lower Acadiana as
the totals here at this time only ranging from 1.5 to 2.0 inches.

Expect lingering moisture and lift to generate scattered showers
and thunderstorms for Tuesday, with chances around 30-40%.
Otherwise, south to southeast winds and above normal temperatures
expected to continue.

08/DML

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Saturday)

Ample moisture will remain in the area during the mid to late week
period. No significant system is expected over the area Wednesday or
Thursday, however with the lack of any ridging locally and weak
disturbances aloft passing to the north, isolated to scattered
mainly diurnal showers and storms will be possible.

Friday into the weekend a weak front may move into the area. This
boundary may provide an uptick in coverage before washing out or
lifting back north late in the weekend.

05

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 644 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

A weak frontal boundary will slowly approach the area from the
west this evening increasing showers and thunderstorms ahead of it
as it does so. Ceilings will gradually lower to IFR early Monday
morning. A squall line will eventually form and push across the
region from West to East early Monday morning. Visibility reducing
heavy rainfall and strong, gusty winds can be expected in the
vicinity of storms. Precip will gradually come to an end from west
to east Monday afternoon. Away from storms, gradient winds will
continue to gust into the mid 20 knot range tonight and tomorrow
morning before relaxing during the afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...

Elevated winds and seas will continue this evening, but slowly
subside after Midnight as the pressure gradient relaxes. Chances
of showers and thunderstorms will increase tonight through Tuesday
morning as the surface trough and deep layer upper level trough
approaches the area. By Tuesday, onshore flow expected for the
remainder of the period with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.

08/DML

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  66  78  64  85 /  70  90  20  40
LCH  69  80  69  84 /  70  90  20  40
LFT  71  79  69  85 /  40  90  40  50
BPT  71  83  70  84 /  80  90  20  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Flood Watch through Monday evening for LAZ027>033-141>143-
     241>243.

     Wind Advisory until midnight CDT tonight for LAZ073-074-141-241.

TX...Flood Watch through Monday evening for TXZ180-201-259>262-515-
     516-615-616.

     Wind Advisory until midnight CDT tonight for TXZ515-516-615-616.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT Monday for GMZ430-432-435-
     436.

     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT Monday for GMZ450-452-455-
     470-472-475.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...66