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000
FXUS64 KLCH 110455
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1155 PM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 918 PM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024

Cold front has pushed through the forecast area bringing cooler
temperatures and lower dewpoints. West-northwest winds were very
gusty right behind the frontal passage with probably a wake low
feature, however winds have now decreased over land areas.

Shower activity has ended although some wrap around cloudiness
will likely move into locations during the night, especially over
the northern zones.

Small craft advisory will remain in effect into Thurday morning.

No significant changes to the forecast at this time.

Rua

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024

The area of strong storms that passed through this morning is
heading east across the FL panhandle and bird foot delta of LA,
although rain and a few embedded storms is lingering behind the
main line. Locally a cold front is moving east across Tyler,
Hardin, and Jefferson with a few showers and storms along the
boundary. Winds will increase behind the front with temperatures
gradually decreasing.

Through the remainder of the afternoon and into the evening the
front will continue east with isolated to scattered convection
along and the ahead of the boundary possible. While severe
weather is not anticipated, a strong storm with small hail may be
possible. Winds may also increase for a few hours to around 20mph
behind the front. I have left the wind adv in place although
winds have been very underwhelming behind the main line all day.

Cooler and drier air will filter in tonight with near normal
temperatures expected through Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024

The only thing really worth noting over the long term period is the
warming trend that will be continuing from the short term. By the
beginning of the period, weak upper ridging will be building into
the Central Plains. The surface high pressure will be over the
eastern Gulf Coast, which in turn will allow for southerly flow to
become reestablished over us.

Temps and dewpoints will be on the rise and outside of it feeling
more humid, cloud cover starts to return over the weekend. By the
end of the period, MaxTs will be in the mid 80s with MinTs in the
lower 70s, nearly 10 degrees above climatological normals.

While the chances of showers are slim, some of the northern zones
could see some isolated activity as an upper level low moves into
the Plains on Tuesday and Wednesday. With low chances, we opted to
keep rain out of the grids for now.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1155 PM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024

Gusty winds will be the main concern through the period,
especially through the morning hours post-sunrise when frequent
gusts near 25-30kts are expected. Otherwise, we may see a brief
period of MVFR ceilings a bit closer to sunrise (mainly for
LFT/ARA) but otherwise VFR conditions will prevail through the
period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 240 PM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024

Strong northwest winds will build into the coastal waters this
evening behind a cold front. SCA conditions will continue into
Thursday in the gulf waters before calming Thursday night into
Friday as high pressure builds overhead.

The latest guidance shows water level receding to around -0.5ft
MLLW during the next low tide cycle.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  78  53  75  46 / 100  10   0   0
LCH  78  56  78  51 / 100   0   0   0
LFT  80  59  79  52 /  90   0   0   0
BPT  79  55  80  52 /  80   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT Thursday for GMZ430-432-435-
     436.

     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT Thursday for GMZ450-452-455-
     470-472-475.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....87
AVIATION...17