Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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269 FXUS64 KLUB 112333 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 633 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Sunday) Issued at 225 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024 A broad conveyor of isentropic ascent continued this afternoon well north of a stationary front draped near the Rio Grande. This ascent has been enhanced at times by a few ripples in southwest upper flow downstream of an upper low near the Four Corners. One of these ripples was sampled by morning RAOBs over Far West TX and can now be seen about to pass MAF`s 88D as shown by SE winds at 700 mb veering SW. This impulse is driving scattered to numerous elevated showers and storms from Midland to Lubbock this afternoon with the expectation for this activity to dwindle from west to east later this afternoon from west to east as the H7 wave departs. By this evening, NBM`s PoPs look too biased by multiple runs of the HRRR that depict robust upslope storms from southeast NM racing east and becoming elevated over the South Plains. While not unlikely, believe we`re more likely to see a tamer version of this scenario pan out hence only 20-40 PoPs. The greater signal for storms tonight is across northeast NM under an increasingly difluent flow and nose of ample moisture advection all taking aim ahead of the approaching upper low. An uptick in WAA ahead of this low and veering low-level flow will pull the stationary front north overnight as a warm front. As this warm front becomes more N-S oriented toward daybreak over the CWA, PoPs will favor areas off the Caprock where elevated ascent is greatest. Farther northwest, it`s not out of the question that the tail end of an MCS from nern NM grazes our southwest Panhandle counties which could also throw a wildcard into the afternoon setup in the form of an outflow boundary. Even without this outflow, the surface pattern by midday becomes more interesting as a weak surface low emerges anywhere from AMA and LBB with a dryline to boot. How far east this dryline mixes is contingent on any lingering precip and clouds off the Caprock. Given these scenarios in the past, wouldn`t be surprised to see cool easterly flow off the Caprock retard the dryline closer to I27 by the afternoon as shown by various higher res models. As such, PoPs were nudged westward a bit. Severe potential may be limited to a smaller E-W corridor if areas off the Caprock fail to recover from earlier precip and clouds. Still,areas immediately ahead of the dryline look to see around 1500 J/kg of MLCAPE with deep layer shear of 40-50 knots, so some supercells (surface based this time) are on the table. Tomorrow`s W-E gradient in high temps may need considerable sharpening if stratus off the Caprock looks to more stubborn. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 225 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024 Lingering showers Monday morning across the far southeastern TX Panhandle will quickly come to an end around daybreak as the upper level system tracks out of the region. Thanks to an overnight front, northerly winds will help keep temperatures from climbing too much with highs in upper 70s to low 80s expected. Shortwave ridging will move into the region as the shortwave trough ejects into the Central Plains which will influence relatively quiet and warm conditions across the FA, with above seasonal normal temperatures in the mid to upper 80s expected. Northerly winds will begin to veer out of the southeast Tuesday as a surface low over eastern NM develops. This southerly component to the wind will work to pump in low level moisture from the Gulf of Mexico beginning as early as Tuesday afternoon. Ensemble guidance continues to hint at our next chance of rainfall Wednesday and Thursday as ridging departs to the east as a shortwave trough track through the desert southwest from the Baja Peninsula. Ahead of the trough, disturbances in the flow aloft and subtropical jet will provide efficient elevated instability across the FA for shower and thunderstorm development. Strong to severe storms may be possible with forecast models depicting a favorable environment with MUCAPE values around 2000-3000 J/kg and increased amounts of shear. Seeing that this is still a few days out, details on the evolution and timing will become more clear and be re-evaluated in the next forecast package. Much warmer and drier conditions return by the end of the work week as the upper level shortwave tracks out of the region and upper level ridging builds back in. Northerly winds early Friday morning will begin to back out of the southwest as surface troughing develops and amplifies over southeastern CO. These conditions will help influence above seasonal normal temperatures Friday in the mid to upper 80s. Saturday looks to be the hottest day of the week in the 90s area-wide as breezy southwesterly winds prevail around 15 to 20 mph. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 633 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024 VCTS will continue at KLBB for the next 1-2 hours before moving off to the east. Expect CIGs to lower into MVFR heading into tonight with IFR developing at KCDS, KLBB, and KPVW heading into early tomorrow morning. Scattered -SHRA/-TSRA will be possible during the overnight hours at KLBB and KPVW as well, and confidence is high enough to warrant TEMPO groups. Small hail surface-to-aloft and variable gusts to 30 kt will accompany overnight convection. CIGs will begin to improve tomorrow morning with VCTS possible at KCDS during the mid-to-late morning hours followed by renewed chances for severe thunderstorms at KCDS on Sunday afternoon. Sincavage && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...93 LONG TERM....12 AVIATION...09