Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
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375 FXUS64 KMAF 050807 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 307 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday afternoon) Issued at 258 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024 Per latest water vapor imagery early this morning, the short wave partially responsible for the active weather across the region yesterday afternoon and evening has dampened quite a bit, with weak southwesterly to quasi-zonal flow developing in its wake. This flow will continue into early next week as a trough taking shape over the Pacific Northwest progresses eastward, deepening and developing a negative tilt as it swings from the Great Basin across the Rockies on Monday. Today, post-frontal conditions will yield a day of below normal temperatures with highs topping out in the 70s and 80s for most, with 90s confined to the Rio Grande and Presidio Valleys. Temperatures will also be kept in check by widespread cloud cover that will stick around well into the afternoon for eastern portions of the area, though locations west of the Pecos will likely see sun breaking through by lunch time. Most of the region will stay dry today, with shower and thunderstorm chances focused generally south of I-10 in closer proximity to the diffuse frontal boundary. While a few storms in Terrell County may become strong to severe this afternoon, it is a low risk, with the bulk of severe weather expected to be focused to the southeast from the Hill Country into South Texas. A few showers and storms will also be possible this afternoon across the higher terrain of the Davis and Glass Mountains due to ample moisture and orographic effects, though these storms will be short-lived and remain sub-severe. Any storms that develop are progged to wind down quickly after sunset. A quiescent night is ahead tonight under the influence of continued southeasterly return flow, which will keep moisture elevated and lows on the mild side in the lower to middle 60s for most, and in the middle to upper 50s across the higher terrain. As the aforementioned trough passes to the north of the region on Monday, its attendant jet will yield an uptick in winds across the northern tier of the forecast area, and particularly across the Guadalupe Mountains and adjacent plains. High winds may be possible in the Guadalupe Mountains for a few hours Monday afternoon, but at this time it looks to be borderline and brief, thus will hold off on any wind headlines. That said, the shift to downsloping westerly flow at the surface beneath zonal flow aloft will yield a quick rebound to above normal temperatures, with highs topping out in the upper 80s to lower 90s for most, and the return of triple digits along the Rio Grande in the Big Bend. These above normal temperatures and dry, breezy conditions Monday will also yield an uptick in fire weather concerns across western areas. More on this can be found in the Fire Weather Discussion below. JP && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 258 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024 Under quasi-zonal flow and subtle mid-level ridging, a warming trend is likely early next week. Gusty, downsloping westerly winds are possible in the Guadalupe into the Davis Mountains and surrounding foothills Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons. As a conglomeration of short waves congeal into a broad trough extending from the Great Lakes to the central Rockies, a surface cold front will be pushed south through the area on Thursday. This cold front drops temperatures over northern parts of the area Thursday, with all of the area seeing cooler temperatures, increased moisture and clouds, and northeasterly flow by Friday and into Saturday, before winds veer to southeasterly. Forecast upper air pattern for next weekend is still uncertain. Currently, models show an upper low forecast to develop over the Great Salt Lake, with downstream upper air flow transitioning back to southwesterly. As upper flow becomes more southwesterly, lee troughing develops, with southeasterly winds east of lee troughing allowing moisture to advect back into the area. However, magnitude of moisture return and consistency between runs with respect to placement and track of any disturbances are not yet apparent. Therefore, any rainfall amounts and chances this far out remain uncertain. Highs and lows will be above normal for early May Monday night through Wednesday night, with highs in the 80s and 90s, triple digit readings near the Rio Grande, and lows in the 60s, 50s in northern parts of the Permian Basin, SE NM plains, and higher elevations across West Texas. 90s extend farthest north and up along the Pecos River Tuesday, with slightly cooler conditions in the upper 80s for northernmost areas Wednesday, however triple digit readings expand in coverage near the Rio Grande on Wednesday. Highs north of the cold front Thursday will be cooler than Wednesday and in the 70s and 80s, with 90s and above elsewhere aside from 80s in higher elevations. Lows in the 50s Thursday night will be widespread farther south than the previous nights with CAA behind the cold front, and highs Friday in the 70s and 80s apart from 90s near the Rio Grande. Friday night will be even cooler than Thursday night as lows fall into the 50s as far south as the Rio Grande valleys and into the 40s in higher elevations and northernmost areas. Highs and lows Saturday and Saturday night will be similar to Friday and Friday night, respectively. Highs Sunday will be warmer than Friday and Saturday, mainly in the 80s and 90s. Lows Sunday night fall into the 50s and 60s under mild southerly flow. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1234 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024 MVFR and IFR ceilings expanding across the region, and will impact all terminals through at least the late morning. Improvement to VFR conditions will be gradual, from west to east, with VFR returning at CNM around 16Z, and at FST/MAF closer to 21Z-22Z. VFR conditions are then expected through the evening, with MVFR ceilings expected to return for most terminals just beyond the end of the forecast period. Winds will generally remain light from the NE/E through the morning, then shifting to the SE during the afternoon, becoming elevated/gusty once again between 22Z-01Z. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 258 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024 Most rain that has fallen since Friday has been east of the Pecos River, with critically dry fuels and ERCs at or above the 70th percentile across the upper Trans Pecos, Davis and Guadalupe Mountains, Davis Mountain Foothills, and Culberson County in West Texas, and Lea, Eddy, and Chaves Counties into the Sacramento Foothills in SE NM. RFTIs could briefly exceed 3 across Chaves County and the Sacramento Foothills late this afternoon into the evening, but duration is not expected to be sufficient to warrant a Rangeland Fire Danger Statement. As the dryline that has setup over the central Permian Basin this week is pushed well east of the area Monday as quasi-zonal flow and ridging aloft develops, sunnier skies, increasing westerly winds sustained above 20 mph, widespread min RH below critical 15% level and as low as 6%, highs 4 to 6 degrees warmer than average and in the upper 80s to lower 90s will all combine with critically dry fuels to pose critical fire weather conditions over western portions of the area Monday afternoon through evening. Consequently, a Fire Weather Watch is in effect from Monday afternoon through Monday evening for the upper Trans Pecos, Davis and Guadalupe Mountains, Davis Mountains Foothills, Culberson County, SE NM plains, and the Sacramento Foothills. Critical fire weather conditions are likely to continue Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons over western portions of the area as gusty westerly winds and above average temperatures along with poor overnight recovery continue. Fire risk begins to decrease Thursday as a cold front pushes south through the area, with fire risk decreasing further into the end of next week into next weekend as better overnight recovery, min RH above critical levels, cooler temperatures, and increased clouds and moisture prevail behind the cold front until at least next Sunday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 76 66 93 57 / 10 0 10 0 Carlsbad 84 60 89 56 / 10 0 0 0 Dryden 81 68 98 65 / 40 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 81 65 93 62 / 20 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 80 57 80 57 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 80 60 87 52 / 10 0 0 0 Marfa 84 54 85 50 / 20 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 78 66 91 58 / 10 0 0 0 Odessa 78 67 91 59 / 10 0 0 0 Wink 83 64 93 58 / 10 0 0 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening for Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Eastern Culberson County-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet- Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-Loving-Reeves County Plains-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor. NM...Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening for Chaves Plains-Eddy Plains-Lea-Sacramento Foothills and Guadalupe Mountains. && $$ SHORT TERM...84 LONG TERM....94 AVIATION...84