748
FXUS64 KMEG 120207
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
907 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 905 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024

GOES-16 Water Vapor satellite trends show a cutoff upper-level
low over the Rockies this evening with a shortwave-trough moving
through the Southern Plains this evening. As a result, clouds are
slowly beginning to increase across Arkansas. As of 8 PM CDT,
temperatures are mainly in the 60s. Increasing clouds and lows in
the 50s to lower 60s are expected tonight. Forecast in great shape
and no updates anticipated at this time.

CJC

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 219 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024

The rest of the weekend looks dry and beautiful with cool
temperatures. Showers and thunderstorms return Monday into Tuesday
as a slow moving cold front approaches. After a brief break
midweek, another system will bring more showers and thunderstorms
to the Mid-South late week, along with a warming trend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Friday)
Issued at 219 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024

Most observation sites are coming in with mostly sunny skies,
temperatures around 80 degrees, and a pleasant north wind this
afternoon. These beautiful weekend conditions will persist into
tomorrow as a cool, dry airmass continues to build in. The aurora
may actually be visible again tonight; the Space Weather
Prediction Center is calling for a G4 or greater Geomagnetic Storm
today and tomorrow. In G4 cases, the aurora may be visible as far
south as Mississippi. Sky conditions will be mostly clear and
ideal for viewing if the auroras make another appearance tonight.

A more unsettled pattern will begin to take shape as early as
Monday afternoon when a deep low pressure system ejects from the
southern Plains. While the surface low deepens and eventually
occludes throughout the day Monday, its associated warm front will
lift north across the Mississippi Delta in the late
afternoon/evening. CAMs are just now starting to resolve this
period and it looks like there will be a broad swath of showers
and thunderstorms surging up after sunset on Monday. Forecast
soundings depict a marginal severe threat in which the general
setup is high shear / low CAPE. However, the environment also
looks largely capped in the same period Monday night. This will
contribute to a low, conditional threat of severe thunderstorms
featuring a main threat of damaging winds and perhaps some large
hail through early Tuesday morning.

The occluded surface low looks to pass right over the Tennessee
Valley on Tuesday morning, maybe even retrograding a bit back to
the west in the late afternoon. As a result, Tuesday will feature
very little sunshine, temperatures on the cooler side, and PoPs
in the 50-60% range all day. Expect QPF on the order of 1 inch
from this Monday/Tuesday system. Forecast surface analyses suggest
a brief break in between fronts midweek. Temperatures should climb
back into the low 80s Wednesday and Thursday with little to no
chance of rain until Thursday afternoon when the next front
approaches.

A similar setup looks to materialize again Friday morning with a
warm front lifting north across the Delta. This looks to be more
of a heavy rain situation than a severe weather setup. Moisture
looks extremely plentiful across the region late next week with
PWATs around 1.75 inches, exceeding the 95th percentile for this
time of year. In addition, storm motion looks to have a training
component over the course of several hours. QPF is around 2 inches
for portions of north Mississippi for Thursday and Friday alone.

CAD

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 621 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024

VFR and light winds will prevail at all TAF sites tonight.

Mid and high clouds will increase across the area Sunday, in
advance of approaching upper level trough. Models are relatively
consistent with onset timing of SHRA, which should arrive at MEM
late Sunday evening. MVFR/IFR CIGs should hold off until after
midnight Sunday night, based on the expected timing of a maritime
warm front.

PWB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...CAD
AVIATION...PWB