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000
FXUS62 KMFL 191636
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
1236 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Saturday)
Issued at 1127 AM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

With the assistance of broad upper level ridging and a surface high,
conditions will remain dry and benign as we wrap up the week and
move into the weekend. As the the wind flow veers to a more SE then
SW direction, it will allow for a gradual increase in tropical
moisture and warm air advection. Therefore, the warming trend will
continue today and tomorrow afternoon. The Atlantic and Gulf coast
breezes will keep the immediate coastal afternoon highs in the mid
to upper 80s. However, the interior temperatures, especially in SW
FL, there is potential to rise into the low 90s. With the influence
of the RH values and heat indices, it will feel a few degrees warmer
across portions of the region. Overnight lows will fall into the 60s
in a majority of South FL, with the coast keeping to the low 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 226 AM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Rain chances return to the forecast during the extended period as
the weather regime changes and a frontal boundary approaches the
region early next week. Model guidance suggests this boundary will
become frontolytic in its approach as it loses support from the
upper-level pattern. Ahead of its approach on Sunday and Monday,
southerly winds should help enhance boundary layer moisture over
the region. Once it reaches South Florida, some guidance shows the
boundary stalling out somewhere over the region through the
middle of the week, which could provide just enough lift to
support a chance of showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms
through this time period. The highest chances of showers and
storms still look to remain over the Lake Okeechobee region and
Palm Beach County, but this could change over time as this
solution remains highly uncertain.

With increased moisture and warm advection over the area,
temperatures through the period will remain warm across the area,
with highs consistently reaching the mid to upper 80s along the
coasts and the lower 90s across the interior sections.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1232 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

VFR through the period at all TAF sites. Breezy southeasterly
winds continue through the afternoon for the east coast sites. A
Gulf sea breeze will bring W/SW flow to KAPF throughout the
afternoon. Winds become light and variable by 00Z and remain
overnight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1127 AM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Gentle southeasterly winds will prevail across all local waters
to wrap up the week as a surface high over the western Atlantic
continues to shift eastward. Seas will generally remain 2 feet or
less as we move into the weekend.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 1127 AM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

A moderate rip current threat is possible for the Palm Beach
county beaches through the end of the week into the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            71  86  71  86 /   0   0   0   0
West Kendall     67  88  68  88 /   0   0   0   0
Opa-Locka        70  89  71  88 /   0   0   0   0
Homestead        68  86  70  85 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Lauderdale  71  85  71  86 /   0   0   0   0
N Ft Lauderdale  71  87  71  86 /   0   0   0   0
Pembroke Pines   71  90  71  89 /   0   0   0   0
West Palm Beach  68  88  70  88 /   0   0   0   0
Boca Raton       69  88  70  88 /   0   0   0   0
Naples           69  86  70  85 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JS
LONG TERM....ATV
AVIATION...Simmons