415
FXUS62 KMFL 272341
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
741 PM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 731 PM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024

A stout pressure gradient continues to enhance across South
Florida this evening where current observations along the
immediate east coast line show sustained winds of 20-25 mph with
gusts in the 30-35mph range. Further inland, frictional
convergence has and will continue to result in lower wind speeds
albeit still breezy. With this enhanced easterly flow and low
level moisture return, some shallow (capped) shower activity
continues to regenerate over the instability of the warm gulf
waters and propagate onshore across eastern South Florida. Expect
much of the same over the next several hours with intermittent
brisk pesky shower activity moving onshore during the evening
hours into much of Sunday. With the ocean modified airmass
advecting briskly in, it`ll be a mild evening and overnight period
for the majority of us.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Sunday)
Issued at 1255 PM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024

South Florida sits on the periphery of surface high pressure
centered over the eastern seaboard of the United States. An
area of low pressure over the central United States will begin to
pinch the high southeastward. With the persistent easterly wind
flow around the high, the region will remain in a warm, moist
airmass through the weekend. Shallow Atlantic showers will be
possible through Sunday with on and off light rain in the forecast
with a focus for Southeast Florida.

As the gradient tightens with the low approaching from the
northwest and the center of the high is pinched closer to our
area, the winds will continue to build through this afternoon into
tonight. Gusts of 25 to 30 mph here at midday could be 35 to 45
mph along the Atlantic coast tonight into Sunday morning.
Accordingly, a Wind Advisory has been issued for coastal Miami-
Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach Counties.

Temperatures remain warm with widespread 80s for afternoon maximum
values this afternoon and Sunday. Dewpoint values have been
trending towards the drier end of guidance, so favored the NBM
the percentile in a blend of the NBM and previous forecast for
continuity.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 218 PM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Models show deep and broad high pressure in firm control of the area
with a mid level ridge lingering over the eastern seaboard and sfc
high pressure keeping a relatively stable air mass over Soflo
through at least the middle of the work week. As the mid level ridge
slowly migrates east into the Atlantic, pressure gradients across
the state will gradually decrease, with current periods of breezy
conditions subsiding by the Tuesday-Wednesday timeframe. Low-lvl
winds gradually veer SE by this time, allowing for a very modest
moisture advection to briefly raise chances of rain into the teens,
mainly over the east coast. But showers in general will remain very
limited through the long term as relatively dry/stable air stays in
place.

Afternoon high temperatures through Wednesday are expected to reach
the low-mid 80s near the coasts, and upper 80s to around 90 inland.
Then by the end of the work week, the mid level ridge strengthens
and drives high temperatures into the upper 80s near the coasts and
low 90s inland.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 731 PM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Breezy to gusty easterly flow will enhance overnight with gusts of
25-30kts possible across east coast terminals through tomorrow
morning. Intermittent shower activity may become realized
overnight which could result in bouts of MVFR cigs.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1255 PM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Conditions will deteriorate as gusty winds develop with frequent
gusts to gale over the Atlantic waters west of the Providence
Channel tonight. In addition, seas in the Atlantic will rise to
8-10 ft by Sunday. These elevated winds and seas should begin to
subside by the early to middle portion of next week.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 1255 PM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024

There is a high risk for rip currents along the Atlantic coast as
gusty onshore winds will be present through the weekend. In
addition, these gusty winds will assist in the formation of larger
waves in the surf zone up to 7-8ft this weekend. Therefore, a high
surf advisory is in effect for Broward and Palm Beach county beaches
this weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            72  80  72  82 /  20  20  10  10
West Kendall     69  81  68  83 /  20  20  10  10
Opa-Locka        71  81  70  83 /  20  20  10  10
Homestead        71  81  70  82 /  20  20  10  10
Fort Lauderdale  72  79  72  81 /  20  20  10  10
N Ft Lauderdale  72  79  71  82 /  20  20  10  10
Pembroke Pines   71  82  70  84 /  20  20  10  10
West Palm Beach  70  79  69  82 /  20  20  10  10
Boca Raton       71  81  70  82 /  20  20  10  10
Naples           69  86  67  86 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for FLZ168-172-173.

     High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT Sunday for FLZ168-172.

     Wind Advisory until 11 AM EDT Sunday for FLZ168-172-173.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ630.

     Gale Warning until 11 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ650-651-670-671.

     Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Sunday to 11 AM EDT Monday for
     AMZ650-651-670-671.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Sunday for GMZ656-657-676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RAG
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...Hadi