Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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406
FXUS63 KMKX 221413
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
913 AM CDT Tue May 22 2018

.UPDATE...

Cancelled the dense fog advisory as visibilities have improved.
Still expect rising ceilings this afternoon, but uncertainty
exists on how much sun we`ll see. For now, will stick with a
conservative approach to high temperatures, but may adjust them if
we start seeing a little more insolation. Given high pressure
locating over southern Lake Michigan tonight, expect fog,
potentially dense, to return tonight.

&&

.MARINE...

Extended the dense fog advisory into late afternoon. As winds turn
northeasterly this could again bring areas of dense fog into the
nearshore waters. Otherwise light winds and waves are expected
today. Dense fog will likely become more widespread once again
tonight.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 619 AM CDT Tue May 22 2018)

UPDATE...

Fog continues across the area. Some minor improvement has been
noted in a few spots, but a fair number of sites are still
reporting 1/4 mile fog, as are quite a few traffic webcams. As
such, the Dense Fog Adv will continue.

AVIATION(12Z TAFS)...

Fog and low ceilings continue this morning, with LIFR gradually
improving to IFR. Conditions should make further improvements
during the afternoon, with VFR expected by late afternoon and
early evening.

After midnight tonight, fog will again develop, with IFR vis
expected by Wednesday morning. Some areas of LIFR are possible as
well.

Winds will be light and variable through the period.

PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 319 AM CDT Tue May 22 2018)

SHORT TERM...

Today and Tonight...Forecast Confidence is Moderate to High...

Widespread low clouds and fog continue across the region early
this morning. Fog has been quite dense across the eastern and
southeastern portion of the forecast area, with somewhat less
intensity further to the west. The current Dense Fog Advisory
looks to be well-placed, but obs will continued to be monitored
this morning for any potential expansion.

In addition to the low clouds, light rain showers/sprinkles have
been percolating in a few locations. This will continue through
mid morning as the mid level shortwave moves through.

Low clouds will gradually lift through the day, and should begin
to scatter out by afternoon. The exact timing of this is a bit
questionable, and could have some impact on high temperatures.
Upper 60s to low 70s appear most likely, though more sun than
currently expected could boost temps by a few degrees.

Skies are expected to be mostly clear this evening, with
temperatures falling through the 60s. Overnight lows tonight into
Wednesday morning are expected to be in the low to mid 50s. With
clear skies, light wind, and plenty of low level moisture, fog,
perhaps dense, looks to be a pretty good bet again tonight.

LONG TERM...

Wednesday through Monday...Forecast confidence is medium to high:

Dry weather and above normal temperatures are expected Wednesday
under high pressure.

A warm and moist airmass will be in place late week into early
next week under southerly low level flow between high and low
pressure. Will see multiple chances for showers and thunderstorms
Wednesday night through Monday. Models have less of a defined
main low and cold front than they did 24 hours ago. Looks more
like multiple waves moving through kicking off the precip.
Confidence is high in a wetter pattern, but still less confidence
in the timing of individual rounds of showers/storms.

Above normal temperatures will continue late week through the
weekend. Exact high temps will depend on the timing of
precipitation and the possibility of clouds/rain during the day.
Overall though, this has the potential to be the warmest and most
humid airmass of the season thus far.

MARINE...

Dense fog continues across the nearshore. Conditions should
improve later this morning.

Light winds and little in the way of wave action are expected
today. Some fog may redevelop tonight into Wednesday morning, and
visibility could fall under 1 mile.

Southerly winds will start to increase a bit late in the week into
next weekend, when thunderstorm chances will return to the area.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Dense Fog Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

Update...SPM
Today/Tonight and Aviation/Marine...Boxell
Wednesday THROUGH Monday...DDV



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