Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 221537
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1037 AM CDT Sun Apr 22 2018

.UPDATE...

RH`s a little lower than expected today.

&&

.MARINE...

High pressure centered over the eastern great lakes will bring
light northeast to east winds and low waves. Elevated northeast
winds will bring building waves Tuesday night into Wednesday, that
may result in a Small Craft Advisory.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 521 AM CDT Sun Apr 22 2018)

UPDATE...

No change to the current forecast.

AVIATION(12Z TAFS)...
Quiet weather continues. VFR conditions are expected through the
TAF period with winds under 10kts.

PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 329 AM CDT Sun Apr 22 2018)

SHORT TERM...

Today And Tonight...Forecast Confidence Is High.

Surface high pressure will remain anchored over the Great Lakes.
A large closed low tracking east across the lower and mid
Mississippi River Valley will spill some high clouds across the
far south today, with more sun to the north. Otherwise, quiet
weather rules. Due to a light onshore flow, highs today will be
cooler east, warmer west. Temps tonight should remain at or just
above the freezing mark.

Monday Through Tuesday Night...Forecast Confidence Is Medium.

The main 500 mb low will remain well south of the area on Monday,
with the influence of the high well east of the area keeping
things dry. Some clouds may move into southeastern portions of the
area later in the day. Mild temperatures in the lower to middle
60s are expected inland, with 50s lakeside with onshore winds.

The 500 mb low moves slowly east northeast Monday night into
Tuesday, staying well southeast of the area. The GFS is the only
model to bring light QPF into the far southeast on the periphery
of the 500 mb low circulation. Kept a very low PoP in the far
southeast for now, though is may need removal if the GFS remains
an outlier.

Models are then showing a cold front sliding southward across the
area Tuesday evening, with some cold air advection later Tuesday
night. The models are in decent agreement with the 500 mb
shortwave trough sliding southeast across Wisconsin Tuesday night.

The main question will be how much deep moisture moves into the
area ahead of the cold front and shortwave trough. The GFS
continues to show more moisture in the air column during this time
than the NAM. The GFS is the only model with QPF in the area as
well. For now, have low end PoPs for the northern portions of the
area Tuesday afternoon and evening. Another mild day is expected
Tuesday, with mainly middle 60s inland and 50s lakeside.

LONG TERM...

Wednesday Through Saturday...Forecast Confidence Is Medium.

A period of quiet weather looks in store for Wednesday into
Thursday morning, as high pressure passes through or just south of
the region. Cooler temperatures are anticipated during this time.

Models then are indicating a strong cold front to slide southeast
through the region Thursday or Thursday evening. They also bring a
fairly robust and deep 500 mb shortwave trough southeast through
the region. There is some moisture to work with Thursday into
Thursday night, along with steep low level lapse rates. Continued
blended model PoPs for Thursday into Friday.

Quiet weather then returns Friday night into Saturday.
Temperatures should be a little below seasonal normals.

AVIATION(09Z TAFS)...

Quiet weather continues. VFR conditions are expected through the
TAF period with winds under 10kts.

MARINE...

Quiet lake conditions will continue through about Tuesday.
Elevated northeast winds will bring building waves Tuesday night
into Wednesday, that may result in a Small Craft Advisory.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

Update...Hentz
Today/Tonight and Aviation/Marine...Davis
Monday THROUGH Saturday...Wood



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