Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 210432
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1132 PM CDT Fri Apr 20 2018

.UPDATE...Mid-high level clouds continue to spread east across
southern WI. Lower levels to remain fairly dry, below 5K ft,
however still possible a few light showers or sprinkles may affect
southwest CWA late tonight and Saturday morning due to weak
isentropic lift on 295 theta surface and passing right entrance
region of upper jet. Otherwise, mostly cloudy day lies with
temperatures getting back to the upper 40s to mid 50s.

&&

.AVIATION(06Z TAFS)...VFR conditions expected this period. Mid-
high clouds will continue to spread across southern WI overnight
into Saturday morning. Possible a few light showers or sprinkles
affects western and southern CWA late tonight and Saturday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 940 PM CDT Fri Apr 20 2018)

UPDATE...Upstream mid-high clouds poised to push across southern
WI during the overnight hours. Weak isentropic upglide and lift
from passing right entrance region of upper jet may be able to
squeeze out isolated light showers or sprinkles over western and
southern CWA late tonight and Saturday morning. However forecast
soundings remain fairly dry through 5K feet. For now, wl hold off
on introducing any precip. However clouds expected most of the day
so wl not be quite as nice a day as today.

MARINE...Light and variable winds are expected becoming light
onshore most areas again on Saturday. Wind speeds will remain
light, mostly less than 15 knots, through early next week.

PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 638 PM CDT Fri Apr 20 2018)

UPDATE...No changes at this time to ongoing forecast.

AVIATION(00Z TAFS)...VFR conditions expected for this forecast
period. Southern Wisconsin will experience a thickening cloud
cover during the night due to upstream mid-level moisture
spreading eastward into the region. This increase in moisture will
be associated with organizing Plains low pressure. Moisture
increases to above 5k feet as condensation pressure deficits on
295 theta surface decrease to less than 10mb over southern WI by
15Z Saturday. Although isentropic omega remains weak, however
passing right entrance region of upper jet may add some synoptic
scale lift. May need to add some sprinkles or schc for
-shra as some mesoscale models showing light returns from
mid-level clouds falling over western CWA late tonight into the
morning, but wl hold off for now.

PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 210 PM CDT Fri Apr 20 2018)

SHORT TERM...

Tonight through Monday...Forecast confidence is High:

High pressure centered over the western Great lakes Friday night will
move slowly eastward over the weekend and into Monday, with the
west end of the ridge remaining across southern Wisconsin.

This high will bring dry weather to the forecast area through
this period. Temperatures will finally warm back to around normal.
However east winds off Lake Michigan will bring cooling to east
areas.

We may see a band of altocumulus across mainly southwest areas
late tonight and saturday morning. Most of the area will likely
see some cirrus tonight due to and exiting upper jet over the
great lakes tonight, and an upper low moving across Kansas and
Oklahoma before reaching the southeast U.S.

LONG TERM...

Tuesday through Friday...Forecast confidence is Medium:

The GFS shows a strong upper trough moving across Wisconsin
Tuesday Night and cutting off over Illinois Wednesday. The ECMWF
is faster, weaker, and farther north.

A surface trough and an associated cold front will move through
later Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday. This may bring some
showers to southern Wisconsin. However the ECMWF is much drier.

Should see the milder temperatures continue Tuesday ahead of the
cold front, with temperatures falling back to around or a little
below normal Wednesday behind the departing low/front.

A moderating trend in temperatures is expected Thursday, along
with a chance of showers.  Colder air is expected Friday.



AVIATION(18Z TAFS)...

VFR conditions. For most of the area, winds will be somewhat
variable, should mainly be easterly near Lake Michigan (including
KMKE and KENW), where a very weak lake breeze will occurring into
the early evening.

MARINE...

High pressure centered near Lake Michigan. Light winds and
minimal wave action is expected across the nearshore waters into
at least the first half of next week.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

Update...MBK
Tonight/Saturday and Aviation/Marine...MBK
Saturday Night through Friday...Hentz


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