000
FXUS63 KMKX 130805
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
305 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temps expected for the weekend into early next
  week.

- Keeping an eye on severe thunderstorm potential next Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 300 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

Today through Sunday night:

A large scale ridge has pushed across the region and will remain
dominant across the region through the weekend. Surface high
pressure to the south and low pressure pushing east from the
north central plains to the western Great Lakes will bring
modest southwest flow across southern WI. The lack of moisture
will allow for largely widespread clear skies today with
temperatures likely in the mid to upper 60s with even some 70s
possible. We will not be expected to mix very high due to the
WAA aloft but with 925mb temps in the 10-13 degree C range we
should at least expect temps in the mid to upper 60s though
southwest winds could allow for warmer temps than expected.

There is a slight chance (~10%) for showers and even a weak
storm into this evening as some moisture may slide into the
region in the low levels associated with modest instability.
With a decent LLJ and WAA in addition to the surface low passing
through there should be enough forcing for some showers but the
lack of moisture very likely limits precip potential though
showers further north (northern WI) are more likely given the
better moisture profile.

Into Sunday the surface low will have passed through bringing
back northwest flow to the region but given the continued
ridging aloft we should expect largely clear skies again with
warmer temps into the 70s across much of southern WI. Despite
northwest flow the 925mb temps will be in the 16-19 degree C
range which is more indicative of temps into the 70s, and
perhaps under the right conditions we could see some areas hit
near 80. Overall quiet weather expected Sunday as weak high
pressure fills in behind the departing low.

Kuroski

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 300 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

Monday through Friday:

Monday looks likely (90%) to maintain the large scale ridge for
the most part though with the surface high sticking around long
enough to keep the region dry through at least the early
evening. As a strong low pressure system develops across the
west Central Plains winds will turn more east to southeast.
925mb temps will still remain on the warmer side in the 11-15
degree C range which should allow temps in the upper 60s to low
70s again but due to the easterly flow we should expect the lake
to reduce temps from east to west in the afternoon.

Into Monday night and especially into Tuesday we will start to
see that system push in with a strong upper low and fairly
strong surface low. There should be some precip chances
associated with the warm front through Tuesday and thereafter we
will be watching the severe storm potential later Tuesday. This
severe potential will be highly reliant on clearing and if we
can see instability recovery (or if we need recovery if warm
frontal precip isnt as impactful) following any precip/cloudiness
earlier. Regardless assuming some instability is present, 0-6km
shear will be plenty (40-50 kts) with severe storms possible
under those conditions as initiation will certainly not be a
concern given the strong forcing expected with this event. This
will certainly be a period to watch over the coming days.

Given the upper level; closed low this could be a fairly slow
moving system with lingering showers likely expected through
Wednesday possibly (20%) even into Thursday morning before
things taper off. Uncertainty grows immensely following this
system but the general trend is for slightly cooler, more normal
temperatures with drier conditions overall Thursday into Friday.

Kuroski

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 300 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

Quiet conditions today with clear skies and modest southwest
winds through the day. VFR conditions are expected through much
of the TAF period. Into this evening we will see a very slight
chance (~10%) for a shower/storm in addition to widespread LLWS
of 40-50 kts from the southwest to west at around 2 kft. This
will last through the evening and night before tailing off into
the early morning hours Sunday.

Kuroski

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 300 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

A surface ridge over Wisconsin will move across Lake Michigan
by the middle of the day today. Thus decreasing northwest winds
are expected this morning followed by increasing southerly
winds for the afternoon. A passing wave of low pressure and cold
front will then shift winds back out of the north/northwest by
early afternoon Sunday, with light variable winds expected late
Sunday night into Monday. Gusty southerly winds are then
expected to return by Tuesday over the open waters with gales
becoming more likely Tuesday into Wednesday. In addition, a
fairly long period of Small Craft Advisory conditions should be
expected Tuesday into Friday.

Kuroski

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.

&&

$$

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