000
FXUS63 KMKX 200236
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
936 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Freeze conditions for early Saturday morning over south
  central WI with frost and freeze expected for early Sunday
  morning over all of srn WI. More frost and freeze potential
  for several early mornings in the middle of next week.

- Dry through the weekend, with precip chances increasing again
  later Monday.

- Temperatures expected to rise above normal once again late
  next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued 936 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Low level cold advection is underway while a shortwave trough
over nrn MN will track to east central WI by 12Z Sat. The main
challenge is whether to expand the Freeze Warning farther east
but decided against it. Although cold advection is dominant tnt,
the sct-bkn cloud cover will continue and possibly keep temps a
tad warmer over ern WI. In addition, the duration of at or below
freezing temps over ern WI should be very brief if it occurs at
all. With cold air aloft the sct-bkn cloud cover will continue
on Sat with high temps in the middle to upper 40s.

Gehring

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 345 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Tonight through Saturday night:

Heading into the weekend with a running start, temperatures are
expected to fall to the low 30s as winds/wind gusts gradually
subside. With this, conditions for a freeze early Saturday
morning exist across south-central Wisconsin. Going into
tomorrow, temperatures will slightly lag behind those of today,
and remain around the mid to upper 40s for much of the area.
Winds will remain out of the west, before gradually shifting out
of the northwest throughout the day. Going into Saturday night,
the threat for frost/freeze conditions exists once more, with
temperatures dipping to around freezing once more with calmer
westerly winds.

Gertonson

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 345 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Sunday through Friday:

The start of the extended forecast will be the start of a warming
trend that will continue into the beginning of the work week.
Highs on Sunday and Tuesday will be in the upper 50s to low 60s
with light winds out of the west/southwest. Abundant sunshine will
be present with a 1030mb high pressure swinging through the
region allowing for a pleasant couple of days. Later on Monday, a
shortwave coming out of the Canadian Prairies will give way to
our next chance of precipitation. Clouds will increase Monday
evening in approach a developing 1010mb low pressure moving to the
SE. Ascent will slowly increase through the overnight period but
no precipitation is expected. It won`t be until early morning
when adequate moisture advection from the south will be able to
overcome a dry-layer in the lower-levels. On and off showers will
be present through the day across the entire region. Rain chances
decrease Tuesday night from west to east following a weak cold
front that moves past the area. Total rainfall totals will be in
the 0.1-0.4" range by the time it`s all said and done.
Temperatures on Wednesday will be stuck in the lower 50s away from
the lake and in the upper 40s closer to the lake with winds out
of the N/NE. To close out the week, winds will shift more
southeasterly/southerly from a developing trough across the
Central Plains. This will in turn allow for a rebound in
temperatures to above normal values for late April.

KP

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 936 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Sct-bkn060-070 tnt followed by sct-bkn040-050 for Saturday, then
becoming mostly clear Sat nt.

Gehring

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 345 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

A high pressure of 30.3 over the central US and low pressure of
29.6 over western Ontario will keep winds blustery out of the
west/northwest. Winds will calm overnight with the ridge`s
progression into the area by late Saturday, before ramping back up
out of the southwest moving into the next week with an
approaching low to the northwest. By mid-week, winds will shift
out of the north on the back end of the retreating low pressure,
and speed up in conjunction with a surface high over the northern
Great Lakes.

Gertonson

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Freeze Warning...WIZ046-WIZ047-WIZ056-WIZ057-WIZ062-WIZ063-
     WIZ067-WIZ068...midnight Saturday to 8 AM Saturday.

LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 10 PM
     Friday.

&&

$$

Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee

Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at:
www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee
www.twitter.com/NWSMilwaukee
www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee