Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 180220
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
920 PM CDT Thu May 17 2018

.UPDATE...

Gusty northeast winds this evening near Lake Michigan.

&&

.MARINE...

A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for ongoing gusty
NNE winds. The winds are expected to turn more easterly into
tonight, not be as gusty but keep the wave action in place. Have
the Port Washington to Sheboygan area ending at midnight CDT
tonight and the south at 10 am CDT Friday to account for
southward shifting of tighter pressure gradient and lingering wave
action into Friday morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 602 PM CDT Thu May 17 2018)

UPDATE...

Gusty northeast winds this evening near Lake Michigan.

AVIATION(00Z TAFS)...

VFR through Friday. MVFR/IFR potential increases Friday night
with 925/850 millibar moisture wrapping north into the area.

PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 245 PM CDT Thu May 17 2018)

DISCUSSION...

Tonight and Friday - Confidence...High
The influence of a slowly moving high in the vicinity of Lake
Superior will continue to dominate this period. The high will be
off to the east on Friday but enough ridging will prevail to keep
things quiet. However mid/high level moisture will be advancing
into the area associated with a low pressure system in the mid
Miss Vly.

Friday night and Saturday - Confidence...Medium
500 millibar low to our south lifts north into our area as an
open wave with a slightly negative tilt. In the low levels there
will be some surface/850 convergence as well. So the models are
all indicating at least some shower activity pivoting into
southeast WI Friday night and potentially lingering for a time
Saturday morning. However the wave eventually shifts to the east
and we should see a fair amount of dry time as well but a fair
amount of cloud cover likely to linger per MOS/LLVL RH progs.

Saturday night through Monday night - Confidence...Medium
A slow moving mid level feature along with a fairly weak and slow
moving surface low will keep this period rather cloudy and
unsettled. The ECMWF is a bit faster kicking the energy to our
east later Monday but the GEM and GFS linger some shower chances
into Monday evening. the GFS track of the surface feature is
further north into WI than the ECMWF or GEM. Bufkit soundings
does show some CAPE later Sunday night into Monday so some thunder
mention still looks fine.

Tuesday through Thursday - Confidence...Medium
Surface high moving in behind this slow moving low may hang around
long enough to keep all three of these days dry.

AVIATION(18Z TAFS)...VFR through Friday. MVFR/IFR potential
increases Friday night with 925/850 millibar moisture wrapping
north into the area.

MARINE...A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for ongoing gusty
NNE winds. The winds are expected to turn more easterly into
tonight, not be as gusty but keep the wave action in place. Have
the north ending at 05z tonight and the south at 15z Friday to
account for southward shifting of tighter pressure gradient and
lingering wave action into Friday morning.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT Friday for LMZ644>646.

     Small Craft Advisory until midnight CDT tonight for LMZ643.

&&

$$

Update...Hentz
Tonight/Friday and Aviation/Marine...Hentz
Friday Night through Thursday...Collar



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