Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
262 FXUS63 KMKX 011458 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 958 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers developing tonight, with widespread showers and a few storms Thursday into Thursday night. - Additional rounds of showers and storms Saturday and again at times next week. && .UPDATE... Issued 958 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024 Pleasant conditions are expected today with highs on track to reach the upper 60s and low 70s. Winds will be gusty from the west through late afternoon. Boxell && .SHORT TERM... Issued 400 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024 Today through Thursday: Skies will continue to clear out today, with plenty of sunshine into early afternoon pushing high temps up to around 70. Mid and high level clouds will increase later today into this evening, as moisture and warmer temps aloft begin to advect into the area. The moisture and forcing should be enough for showers to eventually for by later this evening into tonight, with widespread showers then expected on Thursday. Models have been trending farther south with the warm front placement on Thursday, resulting in a downward trend in temps and instability across southern Wisconsin. Still looks like some instability and milder temps will sneak into at least the southwest forecast area tomorrow, with a better chance for thunderstorms there later into the day and into the evening hours. Not out of the question for a few storms to be strong to severe, especially if the warm sector can solidly push into parts of southern Wisconsin. Confidence isn`t high in the severe potential though given the southern trend in models. DDV && .LONG TERM... Issued 400 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024 Friday through Tuesday: Models depict the cold front moving clear of the southeastern CWA by 7 to 10 AM Friday, with precip chances and cloud cover diminishing rapidly behind the front. Highs around 70 expected, with a northwest breeze. A shortwave trough approaches Saturday, delivering an afternoon / evening batch of rain showers, with thunder possible. Quiet weather expected Sunday underneath a high pressure system. Ensemble model IQRs for daytime high temperatures remain in the upper 60s to low 70s through the weekend for inland areas. With a lake breeze possible on Saturday and Sunday, and an easterly component to the synoptic wind field on Monday, daytime highs for the Lake Michigan shoreline are forecast to be closer to 60 on said days. A deepening low pressure over the northern Plains is expected early next week, drawing more humid / unstable air northward into the midwest, and bringing chances for showers and thunderstorms early to mid next week. Sheppard && .AVIATION... Issued 958 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024 Gusty winds will be the main concern through the afternoon hours, with westerly gusts between 20 and 30 knots. VFR conditions are expected, with just some mid and high level clouds expected by later in the day. Rain chances will then gradually increase late tonight into Thursday, with ceilings gradually falling as well. Conditions look to remain VFR through daybreak, but will likely fall to MVFR later in the morning. Boxell && .MARINE... Issued 400 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024 Breezy south to southwest winds this morning will gradually ease this afternoon, as high pressure moves in from the southwest. The timing of the Small Craft Advisory today still looks good. Lighter winds tonight under the high will pick up a bit out of the east to northeast Thursday, as low pressure lifts from western Iowa into southeast Minnesota. Breezy southerly winds Thursday night will become lighter by later Friday under another high. DDV && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 5 PM Wednesday. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.twitter.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee