Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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970
FXUS63 KMKX 251048
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
548 AM CDT Fri May 25 2018

.UPDATE...
No changes to the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION(12Z TAFS)...
Mainly VFR conditions for the TAF period. MVFR conditions are
possible with any showers or thunderstorms. There is a small
chance for a brief shower or thunderstorm for south-central
Wisconsin early this afternoon. Confidence is not high enough to
include in TAFs. There is a better chance for thunderstorms for
south-central Wisconsin after 6 pm and for southeast Wisconsin
after 9 pm. Dry weather is expected after midnight. Southwest
winds of 15 to 20 knots are expected today with lighter winds on
Saturday.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 305 AM CDT Fri May 25 2018)

SHORT TERM...

Today and Tonight...Forecast Confidence is Medium...

Showers and thunderstorm activity currently over northwest Wisconsin
will weaken as it moves east, staying out of southern WI. The low
level jet will be weakening and there is lower instability to the
southeast.

There is a chance for showers and thunderstorms, mainly during
the evening. Meso models are trending later with a line of showers
and thunderstorms moving through during the late evening. This is
expected to develop across southern MN and NW WI along weak
surface convergence and within a weak shortwave. The surface
boundary stalls to our west keeping us within the southwest flow.
Regardless, there is plenty of CAPE with 20 knots of 0-6 km shear
to fuel thunderstorms. A few storms may be strong to severe,
mainly toward the west where there is greater instability. We will
lose instability as the evening goes on and with other dynamics
lacking, showers and thunderstorms will struggle to make it to
southeast Wisconsin.

Precip chances wind down after midnight.

LONG TERM...

Saturday and Sunday...High forecast confidence.

Near record high temperatures are expected Saturday and Sunday,
with highs Saturday around 90, and in the low to mid 90s on
Sunday. A few showers may linger across the far eastern portion of
the forecast area Saturday morning, but otherwise, dry weather
should prevail. Heat indices on both days should top out in the
mid 90s.

Monday and Tuesday...Medium to high forecast confidence.

Upper level ridging will nose into the area from the southwest
during this time, keeping temperatures well above normal. A few
thunderstorms may try to sneak into the western portions of the
forecast area, but overall, conditions look dry. Highs Monday will
again be around 90, with slightly cooler (but still well above
average) highs in the upper 80s expected for Tuesday.

Wednesday through Friday...Low forecast confidence.

From Wednesday onward, much of the forecast will be dependent on
the evolution of the tropical disturbance currently located in the
Gulf of Mexico. Extended guidance differs as to whether this
feature will be shunted off to the east through the Ohio Valley,
or if it (and a considerable amount of moisture) will be absorbed
by the western trough as it lifts into the Great Lakes
Wednesday/Thursday. A relatively cooler and wetter pattern would
prevail if that feature can make it this far north; otherwise,
above average temperatures and just scattered thunderstorms can be
expected to end the workweek.

AVIATION(09Z TAF Update)...

Mainly VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are expected during the evening,
especially for south-central WI. MVFR conditions are possible with
the showers. Southwest winds will dominate into Saturday.

MARINE...

Winds and waves will remain below small craft levels into early
next week. Southwest winds of 15 to 20 knots on Friday
will push wave to 2-3 feet this afternoon. This weekend,
temperatures will be in the upper 80s and dew points will reach
well into the 60s over land. As this air advects over the cool
lake, dense fog remains a possibility.

CLIMATE...

Temperatures will approach record levels over the next few days at
Milwaukee and Madison. Below are the record high temperatures and
year set for May 25-28...

Milwaukee--

5/25--93/1911
5/26--91/1985
5/27--94/1911
5/28--93/1991

Madison--

5/25--89/1977
5/26--91/1978
5/27--94/2012
5/28--92/1991

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

Update...Marquardt
Today/Tonight and Aviation/Marine...Marquardt
Saturday THROUGH Thursday...Boxell



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