Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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209
FXUS63 KMKX 210815
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
315 AM CDT Sat Apr 21 2018

.SHORT TERM...

Today And Tonight...Forecast Confidence Is High.

Many of the models continue to highlight a very narrow axis of
frontogenesis/isentropic lift across southwest WI this morning.
Soundings show the potential for some brief deeper saturation that
could spit out some very light rain/sprinkles. Since it looks
like a stretch to get anything to measure, at this point I`ll just
mention some sprinkles southwest of Madison for a few hours this
morning. Temps will run a tad cooler than yesterday, given the
abundance of clouds and slightly cooler 925mb temps.

We begin to clear out tonight. Continued quiet under high
pressure.

Sunday Through Monday Night...Forecast Confidence Is High.

Models are in good agreement with high pressure moving slowly east
of the region during this period. In addition, a 500 mb low will
remain well to the south of the region. May see some middle to
high clouds at times push through the area. Dry conditions are
expected. Temperatures are expected to continue to warm, with
highs rising from the middle 50s to around 60 Sunday to the lower
to middle 60s on Monday. Onshore winds will keep lakeshore areas
cooler.

.LONG TERM...

Tuesday Through Friday...Forecast Confidence Is Medium.

Models are differing somewhat with trends during this period. The
GFS has a deeper 500 mb low passing southeast from the northern
Plains into southern Missouri than the ECMWF and Canadian. Thus,
the GFS has an accompanying surface low, with QPF brushing the
southern and western parts of the area, sliding southeast from
southwest Minnesota through Iowa Tuesday into Wednesday. The ECMWF
and Canadian models are fairly dry during this period, with the
absence of the surface low.

For now, kept mainly lower end PoPs for Tuesday night into
Wednesday. Would not be surprised if the GFS take the low further
south like the other models in later runs. Highs will remain mild
Tuesday, with lower to middle 60s inland, and cooler temperatures
near Lake Michigan. Cooler temperatures in the 50s inland and
middle to upper 40s lakeside look reasonable for Wednesday, though
it may be a bit too cool if this period ends up dry.

A strong cold front then approaches the region from the northwest
Thursday morning, moving southeast through the area during the
afternoon or evening hours. There is a 500 mb low that slides
southeast through the region either Thursday night or Friday
morning. There seems to be good  eep layer moisture with this
system, so kept PoPs going for Thursday into Thursday night.
Temperatures look to cool later in the week, with highs in the
50s inland and cooler lakeside.

&&

.AVIATION(09Z TAFS)...

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Winds will be
less than 10kts.

&&

.MARINE...

Winds and waves will remain low across the nearshore waters into
early next week.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

Today/Tonight and Aviation/Marine...Davis
Sunday through Friday...Wood



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