Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 152301

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
601 PM CDT Thu Mar 15 2018


Forecast looks good into Friday morning.  No changes needed.



VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. The only
concern with the small potential for an MVFR CIG pushing in off
Lake Michigan and hitting KMKE/KENW from about 10-17Z Friday.
These clouds should just remain scattered or stay off shore
completely, but there is uncertainty and therefore the potential
that it could be a CIG for a few hours. Look for northerly winds
to gradually veer northeast tonight, then east by late Friday


.PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 328 PM CDT Thu Mar 15 2018)

Tonight through Saturday

Dry northwest flow will dominate through early Friday. Light north
to northeast winds are expected tonight, becoming easterly on Friday
as surface high pressure slides over northeast wisconsin. Some
clouds may move into far southeast Wisconsin from the lake early
Friday morning. Mid level ridging will move over head on Friday
ahead of the next system so clear skies should continue through the
day with mild temperatures. Easterly flow will keep temperatures
cool along Lake Michigan.

A closed low will be approaching the state Friday night. Some wet
snow, around one half inch, may clip southwest WI overnight, south
and west of Madison. Confidence on accumulating snow is low since it
may end up south of here or be mainly virga. There is a lot of dry
air to overcome below the snow growth zone so it will take some time
for the low levels to saturate, if they fully saturate at all. The
NAM looks like an outlier on the high side of QPF. The surface low
will stay well to the south where the better forcing is. GFS and NAM
soundings are showing only a small window of saturation.
Temperatures will dip below freezing during the evening but any
accumulation may lag due to lingering warmer pavement temperatures
from sunny day time heating.

Temperatures will warm into the 40s on Saturday. The upper low will
become an open wave as it moves across central IL on Saturday. High
pressure will then dominate through Sunday.


Early in the week low pressure will track well south of the
state. Wisconsin will remain in east flow. Temperatures will
remain mild with Sunday being the warmest day. A shortwave will
drop across the state midweek brining cooler temperatures with
precip chances to our west. A mid level ridge sets up later in
the week with dry weather likely.


Winds will gradually become northeast across all of southern WI
tonight. Some clouds around 2-4kft may move in off the lake early
Friday and they may be broken to overcast for a few hours. Light
east winds are expected on Friday.


North to northeast winds will continue across the lake today,
becoming northeast tonight, and then east Friday and Saturday.
Waves are expected to be 3 to 5 feet tonight, with the higher
waves toward open waters. Waves are expected to diminish Friday
afternoon, with just 1-2 foot waves expected Saturday and Sunday.


LM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT Friday for LMZ643>646.



Tonight/Friday and Aviation/Marine...Marquardt
Friday Night through Thursday...Marquardt is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.