Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 121636

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1136 AM CDT Mon Mar 12 2018

.UPDATE...18z aviation discussion below...


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 325 AM CDT Mon Mar 12 2018

A rather benign short term period is expected. The primary concern
will be the potential for stratus clouds to build in today as
cyclonic flow on the western periphery of the Great Lakes trough
grazes the eastern part of the area. This will likely bring
diurnally-driven clouds to areas along and east of Interstate 35,
along with the potential of scattered flurries over west central WI
(mainly toward Ladysmith & Eau Claire).

Temperatures will remain on the cool side of normal today under the
northwest flow, with low/mid 30s expected for highs. The brisk
northwest winds will make it feel notably cooler however, with
afternoon apparent temps in the mid teens to mid 20s.

Skies should gradually clear this evening, with mostly clear skies
prevailing area-wide overnight. Temperatures will cool into the
teens across most of the area, with slightly cooler readings around
10 degrees over west central MN.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 325 AM CDT Mon Mar 12 2018

The benign weather could continue through the entire long term,
but certainly through at least Friday. One surface ridge will
pass south across the eastern Plains Tuesday, with a second one
following it southeast across the Great lakes Friday. This will
keep the flow mostly northerly with the exception being Tuesday
night. This is hardly a warm setup, but with plentiful sunshine
and the lack of any strong CAA, temperatures will remain near or
slightly above normal.

Model consistency for next weekend continues to be poor, but the
ECMWF has slowed down with a surface cyclone over the central U.S.
with the recent run and is closer to the rest of the guidance.
Still, by Saturday, the cyclone placement between the GFS, GEM,
and ECMWF are hundreds of miles different. PoPs have taken a hit
as a result, and went dry through most of the period. The best
chance for precip will be after the current forecast period as
another system, which is showing better model consistency,
develops over the central Plains Monday.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1145 AM CDT Mon Mar 12 2018

Main concern this afternoon/evening is small threat of MVFR cigs
developing affecting the eastern areas, mainly east of KMSP into
western WI. Appears cigs of 3500-4500ft likely especially into
western WI into the evening. Will trend things that way with VFR
trends to the west. Some wind gusts possible this afternoon and
diminish around 00z Tue.

Still some chance of cigs around 4K feet developing later this

.Tuesday night...VFR. Variable wind less than 5 kts.
.Wednesday...VFR. Mainly west wind 5-7 kts.
.Wednesday night...VFR. North wind less than 5 kts.
.Thursday...VFR. Northeast wind around 5 kts.



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