Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 112308

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
608 PM CDT Sun Mar 11 2018

Issued at 608 PM CDT Sun Mar 11 2018

Updated to include 00Z aviation discussion below.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 302 PM CDT Sun Mar 11 2018

Inverted trough axis very slowly working through the area today,
with the entire forecast area socked in under overcast stratus and
many locations along the actual boundary still seeing widespread
fog.  By this afternoon, winds area wide have finally turned
northwesterly, but it`s going to take most of the night to dry out.
The stratus shield extends back into eastern South Dakota through
northwest MN.

High pressure will continue settling into the Dakotas this evening,
becoming stationary and keeping our area dry and under northwest
flow through the period. With the upper trough over the Great Lakes
tomorrow, cyclonically curved flow and a negative cu rule point
toward redevelopment of stratocu late morning through the afternoon
in western Wisconsin and eastern Minnesota.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 302 PM CDT Sun Mar 11 2018

The long term period continues to look dry until late this week,
with warming temperatures and an ensuing melt still anticipated.
The high pressure area mentioned in the short term discussion will
very slowly drift south through the middle of the week, keeping us
seasonably cool on Tuesday thanks to continued northerly flow.  On
Wednesday, the ridge axis will move through and winds will begin to
turn southwesterly.  Timing is a little bit in question, but as of
now temperatures look to warm into the 40s.

There are some differences in the strength of the late week ridge.
The GFS certainly has a more amplified ridge moving through as
compared to the ECMWF.  Nonetheless, most guidance would point to
temepratures warming at least a little above average.  The average
high on Tuesday is 40 degrees, and it looks like the end of the week
will be 5 or so degrees above normal.

In terms of precip potential for the end of the week and weekend,
the GFS does bring showers to the area, and even negative LI`s into
southern MN.  But the EC does not agree and would keep us dry right
through the end of the period.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 608 PM CDT Sun Mar 11 2018

High pressure is currently working into the area with sufficient
drying and subsidence to clear out the clouds already into the
northwest portion of the area. This should continue to progress
south and east through the evening, with most sites seeing things
scatter out by 06Z given current observed trends and latest HRRR
and LAMP output. We should see some diurnal cu develop on Monday,
particularly over the eastern half of the area where lapse rates
will be better and some cyclonic flow could linger.

KMSP...Timing of VFR arrival this evening could differ by an hour
or so from forecast. We could see some BKN MVFR ceilings for a
time on Monday afternoon, but kept things scattered for now.

.Monday overnight...VFR. Northwest wind around 5 kt.
.Tuesday...VFR. Northwest wind around 5 kt.
.Tuesday night...VFR. Variable wind less than 5 kt.
.Wednesday...VFR. Mainly west wind around 5 kt.
.Wednesday night...VFR. North wind less than 5 kt.
.Thursday...VFR. Variable wind less than 5 kt.




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