809
FXUS63 KMPX 031120
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
620 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warmer and sunny today and Sunday with a chance for another
  round of rain on Saturday.

- Unsettled weather pattern next week with more rain chances.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 257 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Today through Sunday... High pressure today will provide for
clear skies and plenty of sun during the day. These clear skies
overnight have also allowed for temperatures to cool into the
40s. These cooler temperatures near the dew points have allowed
for mist and fog to form. This is mainly occurring across far
eastern Minnesota and into western Wisconsin. Once the sun rises
and temperatures start to rise, this fog and mist will clear
quickly. Tonight into Saturday morning, possibly into the
afternoon in western Wisconsin, another round of rain showers is
expected. As mentioned in the previous discussion this is tied
to a shortwave aloft and its associated front at the surface.
With the speed this is forecast to pass through and the moisture
available up to around a quarter of an inch is expected. Not
seeing much in the way of convection occurring with little
instability and this matches up with the lack of general thunder
in SPC Day 1 and Day 2 for us. With high pressure moving back
in behind the front, clearing skies should arrive Saturday
evening to Saturday night. Temperatures in the 60s for the sunny
days today and Sunday with cooler temperatures in the upper 50s
to lower 60s under cloudy skies on Saturday.

Monday through Thursday... Monday will start with warm air
advection warming us into the 70s. The high pressure should hang
around long enough to keep most of Monday warm and dry, although
some rain could start moving in later in the day across western
Minnesota. This continues to look like a very unsettled period
with a wide spread among the ensembles systems. Across this
period from Monday night to Thursday each six hour block has at
least a few members in the GEFS, ENS, or GEPS with QPF. This is
spread across the period with one period having the highest
confidence Monday night into Tuesday morning. Which matches
when the deterministic models bring the main synoptic forcing
through the Upper Midwest. This is related to amplified trough
moving east of the Rockies during this period. As this system
occludes and stalls out of the north central CONUS that PoP get
less certain and lower. With this weaker and broader forcing
there is much less confidence in where rain could occur. With
the rain chances and clouds the rest of the week will be cooler
with temperature more in the upper 50s to upper 60s rather than
Monday`s 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 620 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

VFR across all sites but EAU this morning. The fog at EAU will
lift early in the period as the temperature begin to warm.
After the fog lifts it will be a VFR day across all terminals.
Rain will move from west to east across Minnesota and into
Wisconsin this evening into Saturday morning. MVFR will be the
main category as it rains.

KMSP...VFR today and any fog this morning should remain in the
river valleys rather than at the airfield. Cross wind wil
continue this morning, but winds will remain light. Winds will
increase later this morning, but the winds should shift to the
west by that point. Rain chances increase tonight with MVFR
expected.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT PM...VFR. Wind NW 5-10 kts.
SUN...VFR. Wind variable 5 kts becoming SE 5-10 kts.
MON...VFR. Chance PM MVFR/-RA. Wind SE 15-20G30 kts

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 236 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

The continued wet pattern for the next week will also continue to
cause rising rivers over the entire HSA. Soils have started to
become saturated at upper levels, so runoff is increasing with each
rain event, though the onset of the growing season does help along
with recovery days between rain events. All told, most tributaries
and mainstem rivers will continue a slow rise for at least the next
week, with some in the Minnesota and Crow river basins approaching
minor flood stage by early next week (Minnesota at Morton already
there).

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...NDC
AVIATION...NDC
HYDROLOGY...CCS