000
FXUS63 KMPX 171737
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1237 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain ends from west to east today, followed by additional rain
  in far southern MN tonight into early Thursday.

- Mainly dry Thursday through the weekend, with next best chance
  for rain coming Monday.

- Temperatures generally close to normal through early next
  week, though lows near to below freezing Friday-Sunday
  mornings may produce frost.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 337 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Surface analysis early this morning shows a low pressure center
circulating over southern MN, which is also evident on KMPX
radar as bands of rain showers lift north over western WI, W
to NW over eastern MN and S to SE over southwestern MN. This low
is occurring under a compact sharp shortwave, stacked nearly
atop the surface feature. In the broader picture, a trailing
cold front is analyzed from southern Manitoba extending
southwest across the Dakotas into Wyoming with high pressure
building behind it over western Canada. Aloft, a more longwave
trough with its low centered over southwestern Canada is slowly
lumbering east-southeastward.

Both the surface low over MN and its reflection aloft will lift
east into the Great Lakes by late this afternoon, dragging the
rotating rain showers with it and allowing the precipitation to
end from west to east today. Little in the way of additional
rainfall is expected from daybreak onward, though the heaviest
rainfall looks to be confined to western WI as that part of the
WFO MPX will have the longest duration of remaining rainfall and
also the relatively highest instability and deepest moisture
available for producing some heavier showers. As the system
lifts away, a small bubble ridge aloft will traverse MN/WI,
making for a period of partial (if not mostly) clear skies late
this afternoon through this evening. However, clouds will fill
back in tonight into Thursday as the aforementioned cold front
to the west sweeps across the region. Deep moisture will
generally be lacking with this frontal passage, but sufficient
moisture will accompany the front near the MN/IA border late
tonight through Thursday morning such that additional rainfall
looks likely near the I-90 corridor. Instability, and hence
thunderstorms, will be very hard to come by with this cold
frontal passage so have omitted TS mention for the forecast for
that area`s rainfall.

From late Thursday on through the upcoming weekend, the western
Canadian area of high pressure will slowly slide east southeast,
moving across the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest. This will
promote several days of mainly clear skies with no precipitation.
However, there are indications of another frontal system
arriving early next week which may produce some rainfall.

Though no appreciable change in airmass is expected, generally
seasonable temperatures are expected with relatively large
diurnal spreads. After highs in the 50s both today and Thursday,
highs drop back to the 40s on Friday behind the cold front,
including low temperatures in the low-mid 30s Friday morning.
From Saturday onward, highs will increase to near 50 area-wide
on Saturday then near 60 area-wide Sunday-Tuesday and into the
low-mid 60s on Tuesday. The flip side is that lows will run in
the upper 20s to lower 30s Saturday and Sunday mornings,
potentially allowing for appreciable frost formation and hard
freezes (especially given the area-wide greening up of
vegetation with the widespread recent rainfall). Lows then
increase to the mid 30s to lower 40s early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1216 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

A gradual improvement from IFR to MVFR/VFR will continue through
this evening as a surface low over the Great Lakes continues to
pull away to the east. Winds have also become west/northwesterly
and are still on the breezy side. A shift to straight westerly
with gusts dropping off will occur after 00z. There is a small
chance for another round of showers early Thursday morning for
our southernmost terminals, but confidence wasn`t high enough
for KMSP and KEAU to add anything but a PROB30 for now. Winds
will pick up again by the end of the period.

KMSP...As mentioned above, expecting a improvement to VFR by
this evening. PROB30 for some showers has been included for
early tomorrow morning, but VFR conditions are expected to
prevail.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. Wind WNW 15-25G30-40 kts.
SAT...VFR. Wind NW 10-15G20-25 kts.
SUN...VFR. Wind W 10-15 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JPC
AVIATION...Dye