Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 162054

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
354 PM CDT Fri Mar 16 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 348 PM CDT Fri Mar 16 2018

It is a dry afternoon, particularly across Central MN and West
Central WI with dew point depressions on the order of 30 degrees.
However, dew point depressions are only about 10 degrees with
increased high cloud cover in Southern MN. An area of low pressure
will continue tracking eastward into Southern Iowa and Northern
Missouri tonight. This system brings chances for mixed
precipitation to Southern MN along the I-90 corridor, mainly south
of the Minnesota River from Montevideo to Mankato. The onset of
precipitation has been delayed a few hours since the overnight
forecast update, so the best chances for precip begin in our
southern county warning area after 00Z. Also, the placement of
precipitation has been trending further south. So, there is good
model agreement that QPF will remain below 0.20 inch for far South
Central MN. Snow is expected to be the main precipitation type,
but with 850 mb to 700 mb temperatures mostly above -4 degrees
Celsius there is a concern for mixed freezing rain. The total ice
accumulation is forecast to remain below 0.10 inch in Martin
County, so the Winter Weather Advisory was thus cancelled.

The system to our south will continue trekking eastward and high
pressure will build-in, allowing dry conditions and mostly clear
skies by late Saturday morning. Some may say we have some Irish luck
as winds are anticipated to remain light, and with plenty of
sunshine, temperatures are anticipated to rebound from lows near
20 to highs around 40-45 degrees for Saturday afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 348 PM CDT Fri Mar 16 2018

The majority of the long term period will be benign, with little in
the way of meaningful PoPs until late next week.

Picking up the long term period tomorrow night, high pressure will
be in place under an upper level ridge across the area.  Meanwhile,
another western CONUS trough will be swinging across the four
corners region with surface cyclogenesis anticipated near the
panhandle region late in the day on Sunday.  This system will be the
main feature of note early next week across the center of the
country.  Models have been very consistent in keeping it well south
of our area, taking the surface low due east across Kansas and
toward the Ohio River Valley.  With that said, there is a subtle
inverted trough extending northward, and upper wave dropping in from
our northwest.  Hence, we still are carrying PoPs for minor for
light snow across western MN. As this activity translates east, it
looks to quickly dissipate, hence PoPs don`t even make it to parts
of West Central Wisconsin.

With the jet driving south behind the aforementioned system, we`ll
spend much of next week slightly cooler than normal.  By next
Wednesday, the west coast gets active yet again with another
amplified trough pushing onshore, sending a developing ridge
eastward toward our area.  There are timing differences but the
global models generally agree that another strong surface cyclone
will develop near the very end of the period and eject eastward.
This is the reason for chance pops at the very end of the forecast,
and will be something to keep an eye on in the days ahead.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Fri Mar 16 2018

Cirrus clouds will remain over the area and winds will remain
predominately easterly with gusts near 20kts possible through the
afternoon. An area of low pressure will bring precip and an increase in
cloud cover tonight to far Southern MN. We expect the TAF sites to
remain dry with VFR ceilings. However, there is a very slight
chance that the precip associated with this system will reach as
far north as MKT. We will continue to monitor those chances. The
system will exit the region Saturday morning with mostly clear
skies and light winds near or under 5kts expected for late
Saturday morning.

KMSP... No additional concerns.

SAT Night...VFR. Wind SW 5 kts.
SUN... MVFR ceilings likely. Wind S 5 kts becoming NE late.
MON... MVFR ceilings likely. Wind ENE 5-10 kts.




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