294
FXUS63 KMQT 030905
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
505 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Active pattern continues through next week as a series of low pressure
  systems track across the U.S. and affect Upper MI. Above
  normal precipitation expected, including chance of
  thunderstorms at times.
- Mostly above normal temperatures expected, generally 5 to 10 degrees
  above normal on the majority of days thru the middle of next
  week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
Issued at 504 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024

Current water vapory imagery/RAP analysis highlight a well-defined
shortwave rotating over the MN/Canada border with its associated
occluded front already well into Upper Michigan. As expected,
showers have quickly tapered off with frontal passage with the only
activity on latest radar mosaic concentrated over the easternmost
portions of the UP.  And, even these should taper off by mid-
morning.  So far, convective activity has been non-existent, but
still cannot rule out a few rumbles of thunder over the far eastern
counties after sunrise.  Most of the forecast area will be sunny
this morning as forecast soundings trend toward a dry column.  The
exception will be the eastern third of the UP where it will take a
bit longer for the moisture/cloud cover to clear out.  Gusty
southwest winds in the 20 to 30 mph range, especially across the
western UP will contribute to rapidly falling dew points and
temperatures climbing into the upper 60s/low 70s (inland).  Recent
rainfall will, however, mitigate today`s fire weather threat.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 354 PM EDT Thu May 2 2024

Rain showers quickly wrap up into Friday morning as the occluded
front moves through the eastern UP behind the exiting shortwave.
Sunny skies are looking likely, but there is reason or uncertainty
across the eastern UP, particularly nearer to the Great Lakes.
Following this round of rain, there will likely be some marine fog
and low stratus, which may be advected over the eastern UP under a
weaker wind regime and potential lake breeze development. This would
limit the potential for mixing. Where skies do remain sunny, daytime
heating will contribute to a building mixed layer that will in turn
help us tap into very dry air aloft. Dewpoints in the interior-
western UP drop into the lower 30s and even upper 20s.  With
temperatures area-wide well into the 60s and even the lower 70s,
relative humidity plummets into the 20s. Winds across the western UP
should be on the gusty side, closer in proximity to the surface low
centered over the Ontario/Manitoba border region and with better
mixing. Expect widespread gusts up to 20-30mph. This would all pose
some concern for fire spread, were it not immediately following the
ongoing round of widespread rain.

Dry weather will continue Fri night. Then, next shortwave will
already be approaching by Sat afternoon, resulting in a quick round
of showers spreading in from west to east for the afternoon and
evening hours. Showers quickly taper off from west to east into the
night behind the passing cold front. Showers are most likely across
the western UP as the right entrance region of the upper jet streak
will be draped over the area, lending some divergence aloft, but
rainfall amounts are still favored. PWATs are only topping out
around 0.75in, and soundings indicate only a brief window of deeper
moisture as the wave passes through. Though deterministic guidance
remains sort of all over the place, ensembles are still showing
around a 30-50% chance for totals in excess of 0.10in. Will continue
to lean towards the NBM solution keeping most of hte area at around
0.10 to 0.20in.

In the wake of the shortwave, dry weather returns for Sunday and
continues Monday with a ridge amplifying over the area. Then, expect
wet weather to continue through the work week. For the time range,
agreement is good for the next shortwave swinging out of the Rockies
on Mon to result in a mid-level low over the Dakotas for Tue. In
response, strengthening waa/isentropic ascent directed into the area
will touch off our next round of showers late Monday night into
Tuesday. Anchored by the mid-level low, mid-level troughing will
then expand across the Rockies and Plains to Great Lakes during the
midweek period, resulting in additional shortwaves tracking into the
Upper Great Lakes with additional rounds of showers through Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 124 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024

IFR/LIFR conditions will continue overnight. Easterly upslope flow
at SAW and CMX will result in LIFR prevailing longer than IWD.
Expect improvement to VFR at all terminals as a west-southwest wind
develops in the wake of the system`s cold front moving across the
area. First will be at IWD by later tonight and by morning at CMX
and SAW.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 354 PM EDT Thu May 2 2024

Winds primarily our of the NE continue to come in below 15kts so far
this afternoon, but will soon be on the increase into the evening
hours as a surface low lifts northward into the Great Lakes. Expect
winds to increase to around 20-25kts across far western Lake
Superior for a brief period this evening, then as winds veer to the
east with the weakening low moving into WI, expect winds to briefly
fall below 20kts in western Lake Superior while increasing to 20-
25kts to the east. As the low lifts into northern Ontario on Friday,
winds will shift to the SW. While gusts up to 25kt will continue
over western Lake Superior, winds will fall off to mostly under 15kt
over the eastern lake in the afternoon as winds back around to the
SE. Over the weekend, expect winds mostly below 20kts across Lake
Superior under a relatively weak pressure gradient. High pressure
that arrives over the Upper Great Lakes late weekend will shift
eastward on Mon while a deep low pressure emerges over the western
Dakotas. This will result in increasing easterly winds Mon into Tue.
Expect winds up to 30kts by Tue.

With showers moving across Lake Superior through tonight, some fog
will likely develop, and it could become locally dense. Fog will
push mostly to Canadian waters for Fri due to the SW winds. If the
fog does not clear off of the lake on Fri, it may expand back across
eastern Lake Superior during Fri aftn as winds back to the E/SE.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM...LC
AVIATION...07
MARINE...LC