Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 150821
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
421 AM EDT Fri Mar 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry weather and above normal temps expected through Friday.
- A strong weekend storm system brings light rain/snow mix and
  blustery conditions Fri night into Saturday.
- Below-normal temperatures, continued blustery conditions into
  early next week and accumulating lake effect snow potential
  Saturday night into Monday night.
- High-end northerly gales possible over north central and east half
  portions of Lake Superior Sat night into Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 404 PM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024

Current RAP analysis and GOES WV imagery show a mid level shortwave
over southern WI and an associated sfc low over northern IL which is
lighting up the radar mosaic in IA, southern WI, lower MI, and OH.
While this feature continues eastward along the southern end of the
Great Lakes Basin today into tonight, precip remains south of our
CWA as sfc ridging extending over Upper MI holds steadily overhead.
While high level clouds streaming over the east half of the U.P.
continue eastward with the low pressure system, a batch of low level
clouds that settled south across Lake Superior this morning
continues to cover the Keweenaw and north central. These will linger
into the evening hours supported by upslope flow before scattering
out tonight. Aided by cool northerly flow off Lake Superior, these
clouds will hold temps in the 30s the rest of the day along the
lakeshores. A few spots in the southern half of the U.P. may warm up
to near 50, otherwise where obs are currently at in the mid to upper
40s will be the peak temps for today.

The mid level shortwave/sfc low progress east over the Great Lakes
Basin tonight and a mid level trough begins settling south over Lake
Superior. Some low level clouds may linger early on over the west,
otherwise mostly clear skies return as weak sfc ridging also settles
south across the Upper Great Lakes. With CAA, lows will settle into
the 20s with warmer temps near the lakeshores. That being said, some
interior spots that get good clearing overnight could dip into the
teens. Northerly winds gusting up to 15-20mph early on this evening,
strongest winds over the east half of the U.P., will gradually
diminish tonight; some variable winds over the far west are likely
by late tonight.

Although the mid level shortwave drops south on Friday, the
weakening sfc ridge overhead and dry profile noted in the model
soundings will prevent any precip. That said, cloud cover will
increase from the northwest Friday morning primarily over the west
half of the U.P. Warmer than normal temps are expected with highs
mainly in the 40s with some low 50s possible along the WI/MI state
line. Model soundings indicate mixing up to 3-5kft on Friday,
keeping dew point temps down in the low to mid 20s. This results in
min RHs in the low to mid 30s. Luckily, wind gusts are not expected
to exceed 20 mph until later in the evening when RHs begin to
recover. Thus, elevated wildfire conditions are not forecast at this
time. Will monitor for any changes in potential wildfire risk.

&&

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 420 AM EDT Fri Mar 15 2024

Upper air pattern consists of a rex block on the west coast with a
high in the Pacific NW and a closed 500 mb low over the desert sw
00z Sat. There is also a shortwave near Lake Winnipeg which will dig
southeast into the upper Great Lakes 12z Sat which will help to
broaden a trough across the Great Lakes region 12z Sun into 12z Mon.
850-700 mb q-vector convergence moves in 00z Sat along with deeper
moisture and then moves out 12z Sat before returning with a weak
shortwave again for 12z Sun through 12z Mon. Pcpn starts later this
evening as dry southwest winds keep the lower layers dry. Could be a
potential tonight for strong winds in the Keweenaw briefly and
looked at wind advisory potential, but winds gusts get up briefly
about an hour to almost 45 mph at CMX, but problem is it is a
southwest wind. Southwest winds generally are not that gusty at the
airport, so held off on advisory and will mention in mqt product
for now. LES really does not get going until Sat night as well and
then looks to be a prolonged event.

In the extended, the GFS and ECMWF show a 500 mb rex block in the
western U.S. with a high in the Pacific NW and the closed low in the
desert sw 12z Mon and a deep trough across the eastern half of the
U.S. Pattern changes little 12z Tue with the trough broadening over
the east half of the U.S. The rex block breaks down by 12z Wed in
the western U.S. with the ridge becoming weaker and the trough
starting to eject out of the desert sw. This trough then moves into
the southern Rockies 12z Thu and into the lower Mississippi Valley
12z Fri. Upper flow over the upper Great Lakes this forecast period
goes from NW to SE at the beginning to a zonal west to east flow by
12z Fri. Temperatures stay at or below normal for this forecast
period.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 123 AM EDT Fri Mar 15 2024

With satellite imagery showing unexpected low clouds developing over
portions of western Upper MI recently, fcst will reflect ocnl bkn
IFR cigs at IWD and bkn LIFR cigs at CMX for the next couple of hrs.
Meanwhile, at SAW, low MVFR cigs have developed as a stream of low-
level moisture from ne of the lake has spread into n central Upper
MI. These lower clouds should linger for the next several hrs with
VFR thereafter. VFR will then prevail at all terminals today into
this evening. On the backside of a passing sfc high pres ridge
overnight and this morning, guidance does suggest that an area of
stratocu in the 3500-5000ft range will spread across w and central
Upper MI this morning into aftn. Winds at IWD/CMX will become gusty
to around 20-25kt this aftn as pres gradient tightens btwn the
departing ridge and low pres dropping se toward northern Ontario. As
near sfc layer then stabilizes somewhat this evening, LLWS should
develop at IWD this evening. LLWS will be possible at CMX/SAW near
the end or just beyond this fcst period. As aforementioned low pres
system moves across northern Ontario tonight, brief shra will be
possible across western Upper MI late this evening, but potential is
too low to include mention at IWD/CMX attm.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 420 AM EDT Fri Mar 15 2024

Winds quickly increase today to 30 knots by late afternoon out of
the southwest. Then a prolonged gale warning event sets up starting
tonight with southwest gales to 45 knots possible with the strongest
winds between Isle Royale and the Keweenaw. The wind becomes
westerly late tonight and northwest on Saturday. As colder and more
unstable conditions move in behind the clipper on Saturday, gales to
35 knots can be expected.

Winds come down below gales late Sun night into Monday as a high
pressure ridge begins to build in from the west. Unstable conditions
remain into the early part of next week, but winds should diminish
to 20 kts or less for Tuesday and Wednesday as high pressure and
warmer conditions move over the area.
WInds qui

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
  Gale Warning from 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening to 8 AM EDT
     /7 AM CDT/ Sunday for LSZ162.

  Gale Warning from 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening to 2 AM EDT
     /1 AM CDT/ Monday for LSZ240>244-263-264.

  Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EDT this
     evening for LSZ243-244.

  Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 8 AM EDT Saturday for
     LSZ245>251.

  Gale Warning from 8 AM Saturday to 2 AM EDT Monday for
     LSZ245>251-265>267.

Lake Michigan...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Jablonski
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Rolfson
MARINE...07


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