Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 211932
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
332 PM EDT Sat Apr 21 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 243 PM EDT SAT APR 21 2018

Upper air pattern consists of a closed 500 mb low over eastern
Colorado with a shortwave in the Pacific NW and troughing in New
England. Ridging is across the sern U.S. and across the upper Great
Lakes. The ridge remains over the upper Great Lakes while the closed
low goes into the lower Mississippi River valley 00z Mon. Quiet
weather will continue and made very few changes to the going
forecast.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 332 PM EDT SAT APR 21 2018

We will remain in this quiet weather pattern with above normal
temperatures and dry conditions early next week. However, a
transition back to near normal temperatures and more active weather
will begin late Tuesday as a potent shortwave digging southeast from
Canada pushing us back into northwest flow through the end of next
week. By the end of the week, we could see the return of some wintry
precipitation as a clipper system digs south across the region.

Monday: Temperatures will remain above normal, climbing into the 50s
and 60s. Temperatures could even approach the 70 degree mark in the
areas susceptible to downslope warming under southwest winds. We
will start to get into the return flow ahead of a low pressure
system tracking east over the Hudson Bay, so dew points should come
up slightly compared to as of late. This will help promote
additional melting of the snowpack, see the latest hydrology
discussion for more details on the snowmelt. Overnight lows look to
stay on the mild side, with temperatures only falling into the
low to upper 30s.

Tuesday: Will be a transitional day as a cold front sweeps southeast
across Upper Michigan. Across the far west, chances are temperatures
will not observer a typical diurnal trend as the front is progged to
already be through the far west. Across the central and east, ahead
of the front temperatures should climb into the 50s and 60s. Towards
the late afternoon/evening hours, there is a chance we could see
showers start to develop along the front and lake breezes,
especially across the south central. As the front progresses
southeastward, temperatures will continue to drop through the late
afternoon/early evening across central Upper Michigan. Overnight
lows will drop into the upper 20s to lower 30s.

Wednesday through the end of the week: Temperatures will modify
slightly through Thursday toward normal for this time of year as the
cold air advection behind the exiting cold front will be brief.
However, a clipper system will be knocking on our door towards the
end of the week bringing back chances for rain and snow, and cooler
temperatures. Overnight lows through this time period look to remain
below freezing, especially later in the week.
&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1246 PM EDT SAT APR 21 2018

VFR conditions with light winds will continue to prevail through
this TAF period at all three terminals.
&&

.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 243 PM EDT SAT APR 21 2018

Winds will remain less than 15 knots through most of the period.
Main exception would be northwest winds over 20 kts possible later
Tue into Tue night.  Another period of strong wind will be late Thu
into Thu night up to 30 knots in wake of cold fronts moving across
Lake Superior.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 243 PM EDT SAT APR 21 2018

Snowpack will be melting into early next week under warming with
temperatures above normal. Mostly sunny days through Monday will
strongly aid the melting. With nighttime temps falling below
freezing and dewpoints likely remaining low, only a gradual increase
in melting/runoff should occur tonight. Sunday into Tuesday, min
temps may not fall below freezing, increasing runoff potential,
though dewpoints will likely remain low, keeping melting of snow
slower than would otherwise occur. Fortunately, there will be no
pcpn this weekend, and pcpn which occurs Tue/Wed should be on the
light side as a cold front passes. A temporary cool down following
the frontal passage will then slow down the ongoing snow melt.
Overall, conditions don`t suggest any significant concerns with the
snow melt over the next 7 days. While melting will likely be
relatively controlled given the forecast, rivers will begin to
respond late this weekend and minor flooding is quite possible at
some point down the road on the usual rivers that experience spring
flooding.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...Ritzman
AVIATION...07
MARINE...07
HYDROLOGY...07



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