Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 232313
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
713 PM EDT Mon Apr 23 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 239 PM EDT MON APR 23 2018

The area remains under the influence of ridging originating from a
high pressure system centered on the Eastern Seaboard.  Temperatures
this afternoon have climbed into the mid to upper 60s across much of
the area save along the Lake Michigan shore line where temperatures
remain in the lower 50s. Dew points are also (finally) starting to
increase somewhat this afternoon as snow melts, especially across
the west. Generally clear skies are being observed across the
area except for a few high clouds across the north central and
east.

Clouds will increase overnight across the west owing to an
approaching cold front associated with a low pressure system
currently located in central Ontario. Clouds along the comma head of
a low pressure system in the Tennessee River Valley will also
stream northward overnight toward the eastern U.P., leaving perhaps
an area of "lesser" cloud cover over the central overnight. All
said, low temperatures overnight are expected to be warmer than the
last and primarily above freezing leading to continued snow melt.
Light winds will prevail.

The aforementioned cold front will sweep through Upper Michigan
Tuesday morning leading to a shift in winds from southwesterly to
northwesterly. Winds may gust to 15 to 25 mph or so along the
leading edge of the front. Forecast soundings indicate low-level
dry air holding tight which will limit any precipitation to
drizzle at best. Indeed, we are thankful for our continued snow
pack to limit the potential for fire weather in the short term.
Clouds are expected to gradually abate from west to east tomorrow
afternoon and evening.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 311 PM EDT MON APR 23 2018

Although the pattern is becoming more active after several days
dominated by high pressure and beautiful springlike weather, no
significant weather is on the horizon with only a few short periods
of light precipitation. Brief cool-downs will follow these for
Tuesday night-Wednesday and again Friday-Saturday, but the warmest
air of the season looks to push in early next week.

At the start of the long term Tuesday night, a few light rain/snow
showers or perhaps light drizzle will be possible as the back edge
of the trough, mainly south and east, but weak forcing and ample dry
air aloft will likely keep most areas dry and only slightly more
than a trace of QPF is possible and any precip should end well
before sunrise Wednesday. Gusty N winds to 20-25 mph are expected
overnight into Wednesday morning, mainly east along Lake Superior.

High pressure will return Wednesday and Thursday, keeping things
quiet until a slightly more significant trough and associated cold
front move in from the NW on Thursday afternoon. Scattered rain
showers will be likely, and guidance continues to suggest 0.10-0.25
inches of QPF. As temperatures drop on the back side of the system
and night falls, we will again see the possibility for a brief
period of snow, but at this time no significant accumulations would
be expected. It will be cooler behind the system on Friday, but
temperatures quickly return to above normal as a broad high sets up
over the southeastern U.S. and southwesterly flow picks up in
earnest here in the U.P., especially Sunday and Monday.
&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 705 PM EDT MON APR 23 2018

As the region finally undergoes a pattern change, allowing for a
frontal passage tomorrow, lower-level clouds are anticipated to
move into the terminal areas along with the front. While there is
a slight chance for some showers to develop along the front
tomorrow, there isn`t enough confidence that these will come to
fruition at the terminals for this TAF issuance. Should higher
confidence exist in subsequent TAF issuances as that time gets
closer, could add mention at that point. Light and variable to
calm winds tonight will increase as the front approaches and
become generally northerly tomorrow behind the front.

&&

.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 239 PM EDT MON APR 23 2018

Winds across the west will remain at 15-25 knots through this
evening and weaken toward midnight.  An uptick in winds to 20-30
knots is expected across the far west toward sunrise (along the
Minnesota Arrowhead).  Elsewhere, southwesterly winds will shift to
northwesterly toward sunrise and gust 15-25 knots as a cold front
sweeps through the area. As with typical spring cold frontal
passages, winds near the surface of Lake Superior are expected to
be calm while winds near the top of shipping vessels can be quite
gusty due to the cold marine layer. Tuesday night through early
Thursday, winds are expected to remain below 20 knots across all
of Lake Superior. Winds will then pick up to 20 to 30 knots
Thursday night with the passage of a secondary cold front.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 311 PM EDT MON APR 23 2018

Snowpack continues to melt steadily but runoff/rises on rivers has
been manageable to this point. The meltoff thus far has been gradual
with most locations losing 2-4 inches of their snowpack each of the
last few days. A dry airmass with sub freezing dwpnts has result in
an overall slower melting of snow than would otherwise occur with
these temps, and sublimation has prevented 100 percent of the water
equivalent from becoming runoff/groundwater. Fortunately, still
looks like we will avoid any bigger precipitation events this
week, although confidence is increasing in a widespread 0.10-0.25
inches of rain with the passage of a cold front on Thursday into
Friday morning. Slightly cooler temperatures the rest of this week
should hold the status quo on continued gradual melt, so we
expect a dearth of significant concerns with the snow melt *this*
week. Starting to look like we will have to keep eye on conditions
by early *next* week though as there are indications we could be
in store for an even more significant warm up accompanied by more
low-level moisture/higher dwpnts than we have seen recently. There
could even be some more appreciable rainfall midweek. Seems
reasonable that if these conditions do come to fruition and we
still have a decent snowpack around, we could see minor flooding
on the usual rivers that experience spring flooding, so we will
continue to monitor.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Borchardt
LONG TERM...KCW
AVIATION...lg
MARINE...Borchardt
HYDROLOGY...KCW


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