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FNUS75 KMSO 092344
FWSMSO

Spot Forecast for Young Dodge 220
National Weather Service Missoula MT
544 PM MDT Thu May 9 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1200 MDT on May 13.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...Increasing clouds on Monday with breezy conditions
as an upper level wave moves across the region. There is a 60
percent chance for showers Monday afternoon. There is a 30 percent
chance for greater than 0.05 of rain in the afternoon. There is a
45 percent chance for 0.05 of rain in the evening. There is a 40
percent chance for 0.04" of rain Tuesday afternoon. With the
breezy conditions aloft, smoke dispersion should be good. There
continues to be a bit of spread on model solutions with the timing
of this Monday wave which could have implications for how strong
the wind gusts could be Monday afternoon. If it moves through in
the morning, then the building mixed layer would allow for
stronger gusts greater than 30 mph to be an issue, but that
location seems kind of protected to the west and southwest which
could be a negating factor with the stronger winds. Right now,
there is a 20 percent chance for wind gusts greater than 30 mph,
40 percent chance for wind gusts greater than 25 mph.

.MONDAY...

* Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy. Chance of showers and slight
  chance of thunderstorms.
* CWR (> 0.10 Inch)...20 percent.
* Max Temperature.....63-68.
* Min Humidity........27-35 percent.
* Wind (20 ft)........Southwest 11 to 16 mph with gusts 17 to 22
  mph at noon, then increasing to southwest 14 to 18 mph with
  gusts 20 to 28 mph in the afternoon.
* Mixing Height.......4500 ft agl.
* Mixing Winds........Southwest 20 mph.
* Precip Amount.......0.01 inches.

.MONDAY NIGHT...

* Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy. Chance of rain in the evening,
  then slight chance of rain overnight.
* CWR (> 0.10 Inch)...15 percent.
* Min Temperature.....43-47.
* Max Humidity........61-66 percent.
* Wind (20 ft)........Southwest 8 to 14 mph becoming south 6 to 10
  mph late evening.
* Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
* Mixing Winds........Southwest 14 mph.
* Precip Amount.......0.03 inches.

.TUESDAY...

* Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy. Slight chance of rain in the
  afternoon.
* CWR (> 0.10 Inch)...15 percent.
* Max Temperature.....60-64.
* Min Humidity........27-32 percent.
* Wind (20 ft)........Southwest 7-14 mph.
* Mixing Height.......6500 ft agl.
* Mixing Winds........West 10 mph.
* Precip Amount.......0.01 inches.

$$
Forecaster...Noble
Requested by...Raymond Flanagan
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2413659.0/MSO
.DELDT 05/09/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL raymond.flanagan@usda.gov