550
FXUS66 KMTR 290703
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1203 AM PDT Mon Apr 29 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 1202 AM PDT Mon Apr 29 2024

High pressure brings quiet weather and slowly warming temperatures
this week. Breezy onshore winds will keep temperatures along the
coast cooler however. Cooler and more unsettled conditions return
for next weekend into next week with light rain chances in the
forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1202 AM PDT Mon Apr 29 2024

A relatively benign weather pattern persists featuring quasi-zonal
flow across California with weak troughing across the Pacific
Northwest states. This will bring a weak/dissipating cold front
through the Bay Area with little fanfare, as the primary weather
concern remains steady onshore winds. Conditions will be rather
breezy along the coast yet again, with peak gusts in the 30-40 mph
range. This will have a cooling effect on temperatures there, while
inland readings warm during the afternoon. High temperatures will
range from the upper 50s on the beaches to the mid 70s in the
warmest inland valleys. Look for patchy coastal stratus development
once again overnight with lows in the 40s.


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 1202 AM PDT Mon Apr 29 2024

A subtle ridge over California continues through the work week, with
an upper level low passing through the Great Basin. The story of the
week will be clear skies and warmer weather with interior valleys
seeing highs in the low 80s and the coasts seeing highs in the mid
60s to lower 70s.

The upcoming weekend sees a pattern change with an upper level low
coming into the Pacific Northwest on Friday, bringing a weak front
through California. The chance of rain on Saturday and Sunday,
currently up to 20-30% Probability of Precipitation, has expanded
throughout the forecast region, although rain amounts remain light
with the higher elevations receiving up to a tenth of an inch of
rain. Cluster and ensemble model output also suggest a deeper upper
level low coming into the Pacific Northwest during the first week of
May, and CPC products continue to suggest cooler temperatures and
increased rain chances into the second week of May.


&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1022 PM PDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Generally VFR throughout the region, with isolated patches of
stratus seen on satellite not expected to impact most of the
terminals, save for MVFR ceilings developing later tonight in the
Monterey Bay region. Moderate to breezy onshore winds will gradually
diminish overnight before building again Monday afternoon, gusting
to 20 to 30 knots. Beyond the TAF period, not expecting widespread
stratus coverage to return on Monday evening into Tuesday morning.

Vicinity of SFO... VFR through the TAF period. Breezy to gusty west-
northwest winds will diminish tonight before building back again
Monday afternoon. Model output showing gusts up to 30-35 knots
through Monday evening, but would not be surprised to see gusts
exceeding 35 knots develop.

SFO Bridge Approach... Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals... MVFR ceilings developing tonight as patchy
stratus expands. Moderate onshore flow will build Monday afternoon
with gusts up to 20-25 knots. Low confidence of stratus returning to
the region Monday evening through Tuesday morning.

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Saturday)
Issued at 1022 PM PDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Strong northerly winds over the coastal waters and bays from a
high pressure over the Eastern Pacific and low pressure inland.
Winds  will be strongest over the outer waters and along the Big
Sur  coast. The strong winds will produce fresh steep wind waves
and  hazardous conditions. Winds continue to increase during the
first  half of the week lasting through Thursday. Moderate period
northwesterly swell will continue to move through the waters
through Thursday causing wave heights up to 12 feet.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT early this morning for SF
     Bay N of Bay Bridge.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT
     Tuesday for SF Bay N of Bay Bridge.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Tuesday for Mry Bay-Pigeon
     Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT this morning for Pigeon Pt
     to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena
     to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

     Gale Warning from 9 AM this morning to 3 AM PDT Tuesday for
     Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-
     Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

     Gale Warning until 3 AM PDT Tuesday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras
     Blancas 0-10 nm.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SPM
LONG TERM....DialH
AVIATION...DialH
MARINE...SO

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