446
FXUS64 KOHX 091709
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1209 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Saturday Night)
Issued at 1206 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024

Cooler weather in place and it`s a little less humid today. Temps
are in the upper 60s to lower 70s right now. Another cold front is
located upstream and stretches along the OH river westward across
southern IL. This boundary will be moving through tonight with
partial clearing expected.

The upper levels will be a touch on the active side through
Saturday. A series of weak shortwaves will work southward across our
area and may bring some light shower activity mainly across our
east. Latest nbm numbers however, indicate that pops will be on the
low side. Also, as good news, any additional rainfall will be just a
tenth of an inch at best and mainly over  few hundredths of an inch.
the eastern half of the mid state.

Temperature wise, its looking cooler than it has been. Lows over the
next few days will be in the 50s with highs in the 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 1206 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024

In the extended forecast, we will kick off the period with some
upper ridging. The ridge axis will quickly move east, however, and
give way to our next weather system. This system will take the form
of an open wave. The associated frontal system will offer little n-s
extension and instabilities will be weak. Nevertheless, showers and
thunderstorms will return beginning Monday night, but the activity
looks like a general risk. Otherwise, rainfall amounts look like
maybe a half inch.

After a brief break on Wednesday, look for more showers and tstms to
return. This system looks more potent with a surface low tracking
northeastward across the upper midwest. The southwestward frontal
extension lacks organization, but 60 knots at 850 mb could end up
being problematic if instability levels increase with time.
indicated thus far. As for now, no day 7 or day 8 spc inclusion.
Rainfall totals at this point look like up to one inch or so.

For the extended temps, values looking close to normal for mid May
with lows upper 50s to lower 60s and highs mid 70s to lower 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 627 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024

Finally, the prolonged active weather event that has spanned the
past 24 hours is winding down. With the exception of some
lingering light showers at KCSV, the departing convection is not
impacting any of our terminals. We do expect a brief period of
MVFR ceilings later this morning as the surface boundary comes
through, but we`ll return to VFR afterwards. Winds will be
somewhat gusty today as they shift around to the NW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      59  72  53  76 /   0  10   0  10
Clarksville    56  70  51  75 /   0   0   0   0
Crossville     54  67  45  68 /   0  30  10  20
Columbia       58  72  50  76 /  10  10   0   0
Cookeville     56  67  47  71 /   0  20  10  20
Jamestown      54  66  45  69 /   0  30  10  20
Lawrenceburg   59  72  50  76 /  10  10   0   0
Murfreesboro   57  72  50  76 /   0  10   0  10
Waverly        56  71  51  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION.....Rose