Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Spokane, WA
Issued by NWS Spokane, WA
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976 FXUS66 KOTX 021806 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 1106 AM PDT Thu May 2 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Scattered afternoon showers will form over north Idaho and northeast Washington today and again Friday. Afternoon temperatures will climb into the 60s today, Friday and Saturday. Sunday will be a chilly and rainy day as a slow moving low pressure system brings widespread rain to the Inland Northwest. Next week looks cooler than average and showery. && .DISCUSSION... Today through Friday Night...Expect spring showers again today in parts of northern ID Panhandle and along the higher terrain along the Canadian border. Stray lightning strikes possible, but confidence is low in the likelihood of lightning strikes. Otherwise, dry conditions will persist with partly cloudy skies and light winds. Some showers might bring pea-sized hair and 30 mph wind gusts. Temperatures will be a bit warmer than today, randing from the low to mid 60s. On Friday, frost won`t be a widespread in the morning, with lows in the mid 30s to low 40s. Skies will be mostly be clear in the morning, with increasing clouds from the west in the afternoon, becoming overcast overnight. The threat of showers returns with less coverage over northeastern Washington and the ID Panhandle for Friday afternoon. The pressure gradient will tighten through the afternoon as the next low begins to move closer to the coast, leading to increasing winds in the Waterville Plateau and Okanogan Valley with gusts of 30 to 40 mph. Prefrontal warming will increase temperatures again slightly with highs in the mid 60s with a few 70s possible near the LC Valley and the Columbia Basin. Rain will move east over the Cascades overnight, marking the start of a wetter and cooler weekend. /KM Saturday and Sunday: Ensemble models are in good agreement of a transition to wet and cooler conditions. Saturday will be the last warm day with temps in the 60s, which is average for this time of the year. Clouds will spread in through the day, which may hinder temps a few degrees. Precipitation will begin to spread into the region as a low pressure system begins to move into Oregon. This will provide good upslope flow into the Cascades and enhance precipitation. Rain will likely not reach the Idaho Panhandle until the afternoon. Sunday the low moves inland with precipitation taking over the majority of the region. The exception would be parts of the lee of the Cascades where westerly flow may shadow the area. There is high uncertainty in the temperature forecast. NBM wants to go 50s and 60s, where the large majority of other models want to go 40s for eastern WA and north ID where they will see the heavier rain amounts and 50s for the central WA valleys and lowlands. Have trended temps down, but may still be too optimistic. Wouldn`t be surprised if Spokane struggles to get into the mid 40s on Sunday. Ensemble forecast is split 50/50 on if Spokane will make it to 45 degrees Sunday. Monday through Thursday: Conditions remain unsettled with a showers remaining in the forecast through the period as the through exits and another moves in. Daytime temps will slowly warm through the week. Low temps though look to bottom out Tuesday and Wednesday mornings as clouds decrease and the potential for brief radiational cooling. Monday and Tuesday there is a 15-20% chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon as temperatures cool at 500 mb and the next trough takes on a bit of a negative tilt. Winds will be breezy out of the west or southwest Monday and Tuesday across the Columbia Basin and into the Palouse and Spokane area. Gusts 20 to 30 mph is currently forecast. /Nisbet && .AVIATION... 18Z TAFS: VFR conditions will prevail at the TAF sites today and through Friday. Convective showers will develop over the mountainous terrain of the Idaho Panhandle as well as northeast and north central Washington mainly between 20-02z. Showers won`t be heavy rain makers since the lower atmosphere is quite dry. Light rain and virga that occurs around Sandpoint, Bonners Ferry, Colville, Republic, Deer Park, Winthrop, and Kellogg may be accompanied by gusty outflow winds. Gusts as high as 30 mph will be possible as precipitation evaporates in the dry air leading to chilly outflow gusts. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: There is a 20 percent chance of lightning and pea hail mainly over the high terrain around Bonners Ferry, Sandpoint, and Colville. A few lightning strikes will be possible between 20z-02z as well. /GKoch ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https://www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Spokane 62 37 66 46 68 42 / 10 10 0 0 20 50 Coeur d`Alene 59 36 64 43 67 43 / 10 10 0 0 20 50 Pullman 58 35 63 46 65 40 / 0 0 0 0 30 70 Lewiston 65 40 71 47 70 47 / 0 0 0 0 30 80 Colville 63 34 65 41 68 43 / 20 20 20 10 20 40 Sandpoint 57 37 61 42 66 45 / 50 50 20 0 20 50 Kellogg 56 37 61 43 65 45 / 20 20 20 0 20 50 Moses Lake 67 37 71 52 67 45 / 0 0 0 20 60 60 Wenatchee 65 43 67 52 60 48 / 0 0 0 30 70 60 Omak 67 40 69 50 68 48 / 10 10 0 10 40 40 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. WA...None. && $$