Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FGUS73 KPAH 151757
ESFPAH
ILC003-047-055-059-065-069-077-081-087-127-145-151-153-165-181-
185-191-193-199-INC051-125-129-147-163-173-KYC007-033-035-039-047-
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233-MOC017-023-031-035-133-143-157-181-201-207-223-281200-

PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1152 AM CST THU FEB 15 2024

...Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlook Number 1...

This outlook is for the NWS Paducah service area. It covers the time
period for mid-February through mid-May. It includes the mid-
Mississippi and lower Ohio Rivers and their tributaries for
southwest Indiana, southern Illinois, west Kentucky and southeast
Missouri.

...Flood Outlook Highlights...

Flood potential is normal to below normal for the outlook period for
much of the Ohio and Mississippi River Valleys and their tributaries
in southwest Indiana and southern Illinois, and west Kentucky. A
strong El Nino played a large role in what has been a drier and
warmer winter across the entire region.

Flooding in this region occurs mainly due to conditions of ground
moisture, river flows, and expected precipitation. Ice jams are
rarely a factor in flooding for this part of the country.

...Current Conditions...

Rain fell across much of Kentucky earlier in the week. This has
caused a rise on the Green River. No forecast points are expected to
exceed flood stage.

Smaller rivers in southeast Missouri are running 25 to 50 percent of
normal. The Ohio and Mississippi Rivers are running 50 to 75 percent
of normal. Most areas are near to slightly below normal average flow.

While surface soil moisture has significantly rebounded since the
extremely dry fall and early winter last year, deeper soil moisture
and longer term accumulative averages remain below normal. There is
no frost depth in our region. There is no significant snow in either
the Mississippi or the Ohio Valleys.

...Probabilistic Outlooks...

In Table 1 below...the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal
probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stages
are listed for the valid time period.

CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on current conditions.

HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on historical or normal conditions.

When the value of CS is more than HS...the probability of
exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is
less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower
than normal.


...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding...
                    Valid Period:  02/19/2024 - 05/19/2024

                                       :    Current and Historical
                                       :     Chances of Exceeding
                                       :       Flood Categories
                                       :      as a Percentage (%)
                      Categorical      :
                   Flood Stages (FT)   :   Minor    Moderate   Major
Location           Minor   Mod   Major :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------           -----  -----  ----- : ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---
:Green River
Calhoun             23.0   26.0   32.0 :  24   47   13   33   <5    7
Paradise           380.0  386.0  400.0 :  54   78   22   38   <5   <5
:Little Wabash River
Carmi               27.0   32.0   35.0 :  57   69   33   40   15   23
:Ohio River
Evansville          42.0   48.0   52.0 :  10   32   <5   <5   <5   <5
Golconda            40.0   49.0   55.0 :  27   49   <5   10   <5   <5
Henderson           36.0   43.0   48.0 :  75   51   <5   <5   <5   <5
Mount Vernon        35.0   45.0   52.0 :  59   76   <5    9   <5   <5
Newburgh Dam        38.0   48.0   56.0 :  71   84   <5    5   <5   <5
Owensboro           40.0   44.0   49.0 :  21   40   <5    9   <5   <5
Shawneetown         33.0   43.0   53.0 :  67   87   17   40   <5   <5
J.T. Myers Dam      37.0   49.0   60.0 :  60   80   <5   10   <5   <5
:Patoka River
Princeton           18.0   20.0   23.0 :  47   65   31   50   10   21
:Skillet Fork River
Wayne City          15.0   17.0   20.0 :  38   43   29   36   17   24
:Wabash River
New Harmony         15.0   20.0   23.0 :  74   84   13   25   <5   <5
:Black River
Poplar Bluff        16.0   19.0   21.0 :  20   35    9   17   <5   10
:Current River
Doniphan            13.0   18.0   22.0 :   9   24   <5   14   <5    9
Van Buren           20.0   23.0   27.0 :  <5   14   <5    9   <5    7
:Mississippi River
Hickman             34.0   40.0   43.0 :  74  >95   55   66   42   54
Cape Girardeau      32.0   37.0   42.0 :  67   79   41   54   19   32
New Madrid          34.0   40.0   44.0 :  55   62   19   24    5   <5
Thebes              33.0   37.0   42.0 :  57   70   38   48   14   25
:Ohio River
Cairo               40.0   47.0   53.0 :  75   91   53   61   24   35
Olmsted Lock and    36.0   42.0   47.0 :  71   90   53   63   26   40
Paducah             39.0   43.0   52.0 :  42   69   23   50    9   15
Smithland Dam       40.0   48.0   50.0 :  42   59   16   19   12   15
:St. Francis River
Fisk                20.0   22.0   26.0 :  13   25    9   24   <5   21
Patterson           16.0   25.0   32.0 :  25   55    8   19   <5    9
:Big Muddy River
Plumfield           20.0   27.0   34.0 :  57   61   11   11   <5   <5
Murphysboro         22.0   28.0   36.0 :  56   73   42   47   15   15

Legend
CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook)
HS = Historical Simulation
FT = Feet

In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid
time period.

...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities...

                               Chance of Exceeding Stages
                                  at Specific Locations
                          Valid Period: 02/19/2024 - 05/19/2024
Location              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Green River
Calhoun              14.2   15.2   16.4   17.5   22.7   26.9   29.1
Paradise            372.1  374.0  377.4  380.5  385.5  388.4  389.5
:Little Wabash River
Carmi                16.0   18.4   24.2   28.1   33.7   35.7   36.6
:Ohio River
Evansville           27.4   29.6   33.7   38.0   40.9   42.0   42.6
Golconda             33.0   34.1   35.2   37.3   40.3   43.3   44.8
Henderson            23.2   25.2   29.0   33.3   36.3   37.5   38.0
Mount Vernon         27.7   29.2   32.5   36.5   39.6   41.2   41.6
Newburgh Dam         29.8   31.6   37.4   41.4   43.3   44.2   44.6
Owensboro            27.4   28.8   33.5   37.0   39.6   41.1   41.6
Shawneetown          27.6   29.4   31.7   35.9   40.8   44.8   45.9
J.T. Myers Dam       29.9   32.1   34.7   38.5   42.2   44.9   46.1
:Patoka River
Princeton             9.6   11.3   13.4   17.6   20.8   23.1   23.9
:Skillet Fork River
Wayne City            7.9    8.9   10.3   12.3   17.9   21.6   25.0
:Wabash River
New Harmony          10.7   12.1   15.0   16.7   19.5   20.2   20.7
:Black River
Poplar Bluff          2.1    2.1    2.1    2.1   14.6   18.6   20.1
:Current River
Doniphan              0.2    0.2    0.2    0.2    6.8   12.4   14.7
Van Buren             3.2    3.2    3.2    3.2    9.1   13.8   16.4
:Mississippi River
Hickman              31.1   32.2   33.8   41.6   45.9   50.5   52.8
Cape Girardeau       23.6   28.7   30.6   35.0   40.4   44.6   48.0
New Madrid           25.7   26.8   28.4   35.6   38.7   41.8   44.1
Thebes               24.5   28.0   29.4   34.3   39.7   43.0   46.0
:Ohio River
Cairo                37.1   38.3   40.0   48.0   52.7   57.7   60.1
Olmsted Lock and     31.6   32.4   34.8   42.9   47.2   53.4   56.3
Paducah              25.0   27.6   28.6   37.8   41.6   50.7   55.1
Smithland Dam        27.3   28.9   31.0   38.8   42.4   51.4   54.6
:St. Francis River
Fisk                  3.9    3.9    3.9    3.9   14.5   21.1   25.4
Patterson             5.6    5.6    5.6    5.6   16.1   23.1   27.2
:Big Muddy River
Plumfield            15.0   16.1   18.0   20.6   23.4   27.2   32.4
Murphysboro          14.0   15.7   19.5   24.6   31.7   41.6   43.1

In Table 3 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for the
valid time period.

...Table 3--Nonexceedance Probabilities...

                            Chance of Falling Below Stages
                                 at Specific Locations
                          Valid Period: 02/19/2024 - 05/19/2024
Location              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Green River
Calhoun              12.1   11.7   10.8   10.5   10.3   10.1   10.1
Paradise            367.1  366.5  365.1  364.7  364.4  364.3  364.2
:Little Wabash River
Carmi                 4.6    4.0    3.7    3.3    3.1    3.0    2.9
:Ohio River
Evansville           16.3   15.9   15.1   14.6   14.1   13.7   13.6
Golconda             29.7   29.6   29.6   29.6   29.6   29.6   29.5
Henderson            14.1   13.9   13.2   12.9   12.5   12.2   12.2
Mount Vernon         23.9   23.8   23.6   23.5   23.4   23.4   23.3
Newburgh Dam         17.0   16.8   15.3   14.8   13.9   13.5   13.3
Owensboro            19.0   19.0   19.0   19.0   19.0   19.0   19.0
Shawneetown          18.7   18.2   17.5   16.8   16.5   16.3   16.2
J.T. Myers Dam       18.3   17.4   16.1   15.1   14.3   13.4   12.9
:Patoka River
Princeton             7.5    6.7    5.7    4.7    4.0    3.3    2.9
:Skillet Fork River
Wayne City            5.4    5.3    5.2    5.2    5.1    5.1    5.0
:Wabash River
New Harmony           3.8    3.6    3.2    2.6    2.1    1.6    1.6
:Big Muddy River
Plumfield             9.3    8.7    7.7    7.0    6.4    5.7    5.5
Murphysboro           9.2    7.9    6.5    4.9    3.2    2.7    2.1

These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that
are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years
of climatological data...including current conditions of the
river...soil moisture...snow cover...and 30 to 90 day long-range
outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of
probabilities...the level of risk associated with long-range planning
decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are part
of the National Weather Service`s advanced hydrologic prediction
service.

...Weather Outlooks...

A storm system will bring small chances for rain later this week.
Rain totals will be less than 1/2 inch. Much colder air will push in
behind the front for the weekend. Much of next week will be dry with
a warming trend. The next chance of rain will not be until later
next week.

The 8 to 14 day outlook for February 22 through 28 calls for above
normal temperatures and normal to slightly above normal
precipitation. During this time, normal average temperatures are 40
to 45 degrees and rainfall during this period is between 1 and 1.2
inches.

The Outlook through mid-March calls for normal to below normal
precipitation across the region. Normal precipitation for mid-
February through mid-March is between 4 and 4 1/2 inches. The
outlook for March through May calls for above normal chances for
precipitation for part of southeast Missouri to equal chances for
the rest of the region. Equal Chances means there is an equal chance
for normal, above normal and below normal precipitation.

Visit our web site weather.gov/pah for more weather and water
information.

The next Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlook will be issued
February 29 2024.

$$






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