Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Phoenix, AZ
Issued by NWS Phoenix, AZ
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895 FXUS65 KPSR 120529 AFDPSR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 1029 PM MST Sat May 11 2024 .UPDATE...Updated Aviation Discussion. && .SYNOPSIS... Temperatures will continue to climb into early next week. Desert locations will be hovering around 100 degrees beginning Monday and continue through most of next week. Typical dry conditions will persist through next week with late day breeziness. There will be a risk for a few showers in the higher elevations of northern and eastern Arizona by the middle of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Midday water vapor imagery showing a well defined upper low across northern AZ/southern UT. This circulation will be responsible for a few showers well to the north of our region this afternoon. To the south, in our forecast area, the southern periphery of this low will result in another afternoon of gusty winds as upper level winds mix down in afternoon heating with continued elevated fire weather conditions. Otherwise, this system will slowly exit the area to the east with some weak height rises in it`s wake for Sunday into Monday. This will allow desert temperatures by Monday to climb to around 100, with some lower 100s into SE CA. Height rises are not too anomalously high, so temperatures will remain just slightly above normal and keep most areas in minor HeatRisk. By the middle of next week, another upper low moves in from off the SW CA coast. This will produce height falls again across the SW US. Not enough moisture for showers, except for in some higher elevations to the north of the forecast area. A northwest flow around this low would suggest the potential for some occasional outflow winds dropping south across the deserts, but too early to get detailed on this, just something to monitor as we get closer. The lower heights would also suggest keeping temperatures in check, right around that century mark through the end of the week. So, the good news, no developing excessive heat in the 7 day forecast. && .AVIATION...Updated at 0529Z. South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT: There is uncertainty in wind directions tonight, especially at KPHX. Northerly winds now may shift back west for a few hours, with some variability. Confidence in the east shift at KPHX is low and may occur as late as 14-15Z. The other terminals will see more typical diurnal tendencies. Light variability is expected at all terminals through Sunday morning followed by westerlies prevailing by noon local time. West winds will increase up to 7-10 kts with afternoon gusts up to 15-20 kts. SKC will prevail, with the exception of a few cumulus to the north Sunday afternoon. Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: Light winds will prevail through the night at both terminals, with W to NW component favored at KBLH and W at KIPL. Light variability is expected at both terminals Sunday morning. Winds then shift back N at KBLH and W at KIPL Sunday afternoon with sustained speeds up to 10 kts. Sundowner winds at KIPL Sunday evening may lead to occasional gusts up to 20 kts. SKC will prevail. && .FIRE WEATHER... The combination of periodically gusty winds, dry fine fuels, and low humidity levels will yield an occasionally elevated fire danger through next week. Temperatures will continue warming through early next week, reaching and maintaining an above normal threshold. Seasonably dry weather should also persist across the districts with minimum afternoon humidity levels around 10% at lower desert elevations and in the teens over higher terrain areas. Overnight recovery will range widely from poor to fair in a 20-50% range. Typical afternoon spring breezes 20-25 mph will be common over most areas, though it should be noted there is at least a 25% chance of enhanced gusts and erratic directions at times during the middle of next week from outflows resulting from showers and storms over the mountains of northern AZ. && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...None. CA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Frieders AVIATION...Benedict FIRE WEATHER...18/Frieders