Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV
Issued by NWS Reno, NV
686 FXUS65 KREV 010907 AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 207 AM PDT Wed May 1 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A cooler day is in store today behind the passage of a shallow cold front. Most areas will warm up again on Thursday with increasing winds. The warming peaks on Friday with lighter winds. However, sharply colder weather with gusty winds and increasing chances for valley rain and high elevation snow return for the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Key Points: * Temperatures will fluctuate from near to above average through the rest of this week, with today the coolest and Friday the warmest for most locations. * Lighter N-NE winds today will be followed by increased W-NW breezes Thursday, then decreasing winds again Friday. * Cooler/wetter conditions with increased winds for this weekend. Prepare for slick winter travel over the main Sierra passes Saturday late afternoon-night, with lighter snow into the Tahoe basin. The first week of May will represent the "typical" spring for western NV/eastern CA, characterized by changing weather each day and even a short reprise of winter for Sierra communities and higher elevations this weekend. Today will see about 5-10 degrees of cooling across most of the region as a shallow back door cold front exits to the southeast across the Great Basin. Brisk north winds through this morning will ease back by this afternoon as the temperature gradient relaxes. The only exception is for areas north of Gerlach to the OR border that have remained on the chilly side (below 55 degrees) since Monday--these areas may actually see highs rise by about 5 degrees. For Thursday, another shortwave brushing across the Pacific NW will bring increased W-NW breezes, although latest guidance doesn`t indicate a very strong push of wind, with peak gusts generally 25-35 mph. Areas north of Gerlach to the OR border will again see cooler temps and even a 20-40% chance for light rain showers, although amounts are expected to remain 0.10" or less. South of this area, improved mixing will allow for a 5-10 degree warmup compared to today. For most outdoor activities, Friday looks like the overall winner for the upcoming week, with plenty of sun, lighter winds and above average temperatures. Even the communities near the OR border should finally get a day of decent warmth (60s-near 70), while elsewhere highs should reach the lower-mid 70s for lower elevations and 60s for Sierra communities. Unfortunately, weekends haven`t been as kind for much of this spring season and this weekend isn`t looking very favorable either. After several days of varied scenarios, the ensemble guidance came in much stronger agreement over the most recent couple of days with a colder and wetter Pacific storm tracking into the west coast. The winds will pick up in higher elevations Saturday morning, and elsewhere during the day Saturday with potential gusts of 35-45 mph across lower elevations, 50+ mph for wind prone areas, and 80+ mph for Sierra ridges. As for that winter reprise, the peak precip rates are projected to arrive to northeast CA and the Sierra from around midday through early evening on Saturday. While this timing isn`t optimal for accumulating snow in early May, higher passes could still see periods of slushy roads with up to 2"/hour snowfall rates at times. Snow levels still look to remain near or above 7000 feet through Saturday afternoon, but then drop to near 5000 feet for northeast CA and 6000 feet for the Tahoe basin into the evening. For higher Sierra elevations above 7000-7500 feet from around Tahoe southward to western Mono County, the potential for at least 4" of snowfall is greater than 50%, while the Tahoe basin northward to western Lassen County may receive a dusting up to 2" if enough snow showers persist into the evening. Lower elevations could see rainfall of 0.10-0.50", with the higher end of this range favoring northeast CA/northwest NV, and lesser amounts for the US-95/95A corridors of west central NV. The remainder of the weekend looks quite chilly and showery with highs only in the 40s for Sierra communities and 50s for western NV valleys Sunday, then for early next week a drier pattern returns with temperatures gradually warming closer to early May averages. MJD && .AVIATION... Widespread VFR conditions will prevail through the remainder of the week. Lighter N-NE winds are expected today, although some gusts around 20 kt could occur until 18Z across the western NV terminals. W-NW winds increase again Thursday afternoon with gusts 25-30 kt for the western NV terminals southward to KMMH, and around 20 kt for KTVL/KTRK. A more notable storm is likely to produce increased aviation impacts Saturday-Saturday night due to gusty winds with areas of turbulence/LLWS, increased precip chances with periods of lower CIGS/reduced VIS, and even some light snow for the Tahoe/E Sierra terminals. MJD && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...None. CA...None. && $$